Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was in Pakistan for a three-day visit (April 22-24, 2024). Raisi happened to be the first Iranian President to visit Pakistan in 8 years. The timing of the visit is important for several reasons. First, it came amidst the turmoil in the Middle-east, Iran-Israel tensions which have risen after April 1 strikes, by Israel on the Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria). Sixteen people, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi – a senior figure within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC), have been killed.
Iran had retaliated to these strikes by firing drones and missiles at Israel on April 15, 2024. In retaliation for these attacks, Israel is supposed to have responded, though Iran denied any such attacks. As of now, while both Iran and Israel have been making some aggressive statements, any further escalation of tensions between both countries is highly unlikely.
Second, earlier this year – in January -- Iran-Pakistan ties had witnessed a downward spiral after both countries exchanged missiles. After a phone conversation between Pakistan's Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, both countries agreed to de-escalate.
Third, Iran-US relations have further deteriorated with Tehran moving closer to Beijing and Moscow. Finally, Pakistan has been trying to strengthen its ties with the Middle East. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif had visited Saudi Arabia (April 6-8, 2024) and is set to embark on another visit on April 28, 2024. One of the reasons for this is the attempt at diversifying economic relations and further bolstering economic ties with the Middle East – especially Saudi Arabia.
During Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Saudi Arabia, earlier this month, several important issues were discussed including a USD 5 billion investment package by the latter. For long, Islamabad was closer to Saudi Arabia but in recent years it has tried to enhance ties with Iran. The Iran-Saudi Agreement signed in March 2023 which resulted in resumption of diplomatic ties between both countries, as well as a significant improvement of relations between Tehran and Riyadh, means that Islamabad doesn’t need to make any choices between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
During his visit, the Iranian President on his part said that Iran-Pakistan bilateral trade had potential to go up to USD 10 billion. Raisi dubbed the current level of trade -- $2 billion -- as “unacceptable”. While several areas of potential cooperation between both countries were discussed during Raisi’s visit, one of them was cooperation in the energy sector – the proposed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline was part of this.
The US State Department, while alluding to some of the issues discussed during the Iran President’s Pakistan visit said that any country pursuing economic links with Iran should be ready to face sanctions.
Days earlier, the US had imposed sanctions on three Chinese companies and one Belarus company for supplying items for Pakistan’s ballistic missile program. While commenting on this the US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller:
“have engaged in activities or transactions that have materially contributed to, or pose a risk of materially contributing to, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction or their means of delivery, including any efforts to manufacture, acquire, possess, develop, transport, transfer or use such items, by Pakistan,"
Pakistan has been seeking to improve ties with the US and is in talks with the IMF for a new loan, which is essential for stabilising its economy. It thus remains to be seen if Islamabad will actually go ahead with substantial economic linkages with Iran – especially the Iran-Pakistan pipeline – since it could face sanctions. While Islamabad may attempt to strike a balance between Tehran and Washington, this will be an uphill task.
In conclusion, Pakistan is facing several economic and foreign policy challenges. The Iranian President’s visit to Pakistan is important for several reasons, specifically the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, which has been discussed earlier in the article. Ties between Islamabad and Tehran may witness an improvement, but it is highly unlikely that Islamabad will go ahead with projects like the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline since this will not only impact Washington-Islamabad ties but could also result in US economic sanctions.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the author.
