Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on a two-day (July 8-9) trip to Russia. This is his first visit since Russia invaded Ukraine, a conflict that has strained their long-standing friendship and brought Russia closer to India’s rival, China.

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Modi will meet President Vladimir Putin during his visit. Their last meeting took place in the port city of Vladivostok, Russia, in 2019. They also had a one-on-one meeting in September 2022 at Samarkand, in Uzbekistan, at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.

Russia and India have maintained a strong relationship since the Cold War. India’s role as a major trading partner for Russia has increased, especially after Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. With the West imposing sanctions on Russia, which limited its access to the Western markets, China and India have become significant buyers of Russian oil.

Under Modi’s leadership, India has not condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine but has stressed the importance of finding a peaceful resolution. However, the relationship between Moscow and New Delhi has become strained since Russia began strengthening its ties with India’s chief rival, China, due to the conflict in Ukraine. Last week, Modi chose not to attend the latest SCO summit held in Kazakhstan.

According to Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior South Asia research fellow at Chatham House in the UK, quoted by times.com, India is slowly, but surely, distancing itself from forums where Russian and Chinese influence is strong. This was, especially, pronounced in India’s “relatively subdued leadership” of the SCO last year and Modi’s recent decision to skip this year’s SCO summit, according to Bajpaee.

A significant confrontation occurred in June 2020 along the disputed China-India border, severely impacting their already tense relationship. During this clash, rival troops fought using rocks, clubs and fists, resulting in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers. Despite the ongoing talks, tensions have remained high.

The Associated Press has quoted D Bala Venkatesh Verma, a former Indian ambassador to Russia, as having said that India is somewhat disturbed about Russia’s growing ties with China, especially now that China is more aggressive in this region.

TRADE TO BE A KEY FOCUS AREA

However, for Modi, maintaining strong ties with Russia is crucial since it is a leading trading partner and India’s major supplier of defence equipment. After the West imposed an embargo restricting Russian oil exports close on the heels of the Ukraine conflict, India has emerged as a prominent buyer of Russian oil. Analysts say India now sources over 40% of its oil imports from Russia.

Trade will be a key focus of the talks, especially plans to create a maritime corridor between India’s major port of Chennai and Vladivostok, the entry point to Russia’s Far East. India-Russia trade has significantly increased—with imports from Russia hitting $60 billion, while India’s exports to Russia were $4 billion during the 2023-’24 financial year, which runs from April to March—thanks to strong energy cooperation, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra had said prior to this visit, on Friday (July 5).

Kwatra added that India was working to fix the trade imbalance with Russia by boosting its exports. India’s main exports to Russia include drugs and pharmaceuticals, telecom equipment, iron and steel, marine products and machinery. India’s main imports from Russia include crude oil and petroleum products, coal and coke, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, fertilizers, vegetable oil and gold and silver.

MILITARY LOGISTICS PACT LIKELY

India also relies heavily on Russia for military supplies and Russia still supplies 60% of India’s military equipment and systems. However, due to disruptions in Russia’s supply chain caused by the Ukraine conflict, India has experienced some delays in receiving spare parts from that country. India has now started diversifying its defence purchases, buying more from the US, Israel, France and Italy. As a fallout of the Modi-Putin summit, believes Bajpaee, both countries will finalize a military logistics agreement soon, allowing for more defence cooperation.

REFURBISHING PUTIN’S IMAGE

India’s neutral stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine, neither condemning nor supporting it, has helped Putin in his efforts to challenge what he sees as Western dominance in global matters. With an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over the war in Ukraine, Putin has travelled abroad less often in recent years. Modi’s visit could help refurbish Putin’s image in the eyes of the world.

Putin has been trying to reconnect with old allies, which is apparent from his visits to Vietnam and North Korea, according to Theresa Fallon, an analyst at the Center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies. She believes it is Putin’s way of showing that he is not too dependent on China, that he has other options, and that Russia is still a power to reckon with.

According to Alexander Gabuev, head, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Putin’s activities abroad show he is far from being pushed to a corner and that the world cannot write off Russia.

THE US IS TURNING A BLIND EYE

Geopolitical pressures to avoid upsetting Russia have grown significantly due to China’s rise. India and China share a disputed border and fought a war over it in 1962. Although a carefully managed peace normalized relations, recent tensions and, sometimes, deadly border clashes have become more frequent.

As the power gap between India and China has widened over the years and China has become more assertive, India’s sense of insecurity has grown. Moving away from its previous policy of non-alignment, India has increasingly aligned with the US as a distant ally to counter its nearby adversary. Meanwhile, China views India as a tactical ploy by the US to encircle it.

India values its friendly ties with Russia because it believes Russia can help mediate its issues with China. Maintaining a strong relationship with Russia also helps keep Moscow from becoming too aligned with Beijing, which would be problematic for India. However, the extensive sanctions on Russia could be pushing it closer to China, causing concern for Indian leaders. India is cautious about distancing itself from Russia right now, as doing so may worsen the situation by strengthening the Sino-Russian bond.

WHY MODI CHOOSES NEUTRALITY

It is clear why Modi chooses to stay neutral in this situation. The risks of opposing Putin are high, while doing nothing has minimal downsides. The US is likely to overlook India’s reluctance to take a stand, just as it overlooks India’s perceived shift away from liberal values, because India is a crucial ally. In Modi, the US sees an Indian leader capable of deepening the strategic and economic partnership between the two countries as never before.

That is why, even though some US lawmakers criticize India for not taking a clear stance against Russia, the Biden Administration avoids confronting India directly. The State Department even retracted a message asking US diplomats to challenge Indian and UAE officials about their position on Ukraine.

India cannot afford to lose Russia’s hand of friendship. Similarly, the US cannot afford to lose India’s support. They need each other to counter China’s challenge to America’s global dominance. Russia does not have the ambition, or the capacity, to pose such a challenge. India’s condemnation of Russia would not significantly impact isolating Moscow, but India’s role in containing China is crucial. That is why India, along with Australia and Japan, is part of the US-led Quad, a four-nation group that aims at countering China’s growing influence in the region.

Russia may be the main focus of American concerns right now—President Joe Biden mentioned Russia 18 times and China only twice in his State of the Union speech—but this is part of a larger issue centered on China. This broader contest makes India crucial for the US when the attention shifts back to China.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are those of the author only

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany)