Pakistan Elections 2024: Final trigger for an imploding Pakistan?

Less than 65 hours are left when the election process in Pakistan will finally begin. The elections are being held after a significant delay of over 3 months amidst the events which directly indicate that the elections are not free and fair at all. The interim government tried to delay the elections further by citing lack of funds and other issues several times and today, the elections are being contested by just a single political alliance and all the opposition is destroyed systematically over the last few months using pressure, power, and forceful intimidation. 

There is a saying about Pakistan Army – “Jung kadejittayanahi aur election kadehaareyanahi” which means that “Pakistan Army never won any war but never lost any elections”. This is true in all the elections which have taken place in Pakistan since its inception. The current elections are also taking place under the shadows of the Pakistan Army, and it is near impossible for them to be fair. Everyone knows that it is the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) led coalition which will form the government since they are directly sponsored by the Pakistan Army and there will be no one to oppose the regime. There are strong reasons to believe the same.

1. Deep State conspiracy by Pakistani Establishment – We all know how the previous premier Mian Imran Khan Niazi was ousted by force in April 2023 after a sequence of dramatic events involving Pakistan Army. His only fault was that he started overruling the decisions of the Pakistan Army in the interest of the country and finally had to pay with his prime ministerial berth for this. The Pakistani establishment (A word used for actual decision makers of Pakistan which include Pakistan Army and a syndicate of its retired officers) had been the sole decision makers in the country and everyone including politicians, bureaucracy, police and even judiciary has no option but to follow their orders.

The establishment had always maintained their absolute control over the country over the last seven decades.If we look at the recent events too, all the actions even if they are announced by the interim government led by Shahbaz Sharif are directly influenced by the establishment itself. Under this factor, the upcoming elections look like an eyewash.

All this can be justified by just one set of events. Nawaz Sharif who ran away from his country and was declared a proclaimed offender was not only called back but the judiciary also acquitted him from all his cases immediately without any resistance from prosecution and at the same time, Imran Khan who was the most popular leader of the country is now put behind bars.

2. Systematic disintegration of the biggest political party- Imran Khan Niazi led Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf (PTI) was the former ruling party until he was ousted. Ever since then, there had been all out efforts by the government, police, and judiciary to totally disintegrate the party. Firstly, nearly all of its leaders were put behind bars for flimsy reasons. Secondly, hearings were delayed, and their bail applications were rejected.

Thirdly, the lawyers representing them were even arrested under fake cases creating an atmosphere of fear and later, under dramatic events, even the Election Commission of Pakistan stripped away the election symbol of the largest in the country. Not only party president Imran Khan, but nearly all the leaders of his party were also put behind bars under multiple cases without a proper hearing. Today, there is no national leader of PTI who is out to contest elections and its candidates are forced to contest elections as independents. This shows the systematic disintegration of opposition with a deep-rooted conspiracy and is the biggest hurdle in democracy. 

3. Questions over the election process in Pakistan-The entire election process right from the beginning was under questions. First of all, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) under the influence of the establishment has cancelled the election symbol of PTI. Secondly, soon after Imran Khan was ousted, the interim government passed a bill to stop the use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). Thirdly, all the overseas citizens who constitute a significant portion of Pakistani voters are totally barred from participating in the elections.

Fourthly, the entire delimitation process carried out by the ECP was under question and fifthly, the elections are being conducted under direct control of Pakistan Army sidelining police, paramilitary forces, and all other authorities. Nowhere in the world, security forces are allowed to enter the polling centre and their job is to guard the polling booth from outside but in upcoming elections, Pakistan Army is given special powers to remain inside the polling booths all the time thus not only influencing the voters but also deciding the winner. 

4. Internal Situation of Pakistan-The internal situation of Pakistan is horrible with each day filled with the news of terror attacks on its security forces. Although officially most of the news never make media headlines because of media censorship in Pakistan, the truth is that in 2023 alone, more than 1500 people lost their lives in more than 584 terror attacks in the country out of which over 400 were the personnel of Pakistan Army. In the first month of 2024 itself, the count was 165 in 61 different incidents and as I am writing this article, another news is coming from Dera Ismail Khan where over 24 police officials were killed today in a single terror attack. This shows how volatile the internal security situation of Pakistan is and gives an idea as to how a fair election can be conducted in the country under such an atmosphere of fear.

5. Financial dilemma of Pakistan- Pakistan is undergoing its worst economic crisis since the inception of the country. Today, the common Pakistani men are forced to kill each other just for a bag of wheat flour and the inflation is rising in double digit every month. The country’s forex reserves have tanked down to single digit while the external debts have multiplied. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a recent bailout but is going to revise its conditions after the elections. As per some economic experts, the IMF is most likely to pull out of Pakistan as its debts are now classified as un-sustainable which will trigger a cascading effect. With no hope of any revival, the future of Pakistan is in threat and at the same time, upcoming elections will just be an eyewash, where installation of a puppet government by Pakistani military establishment is inevitable. 

Pakistan is already under a massive crisis and the military establishment is trying to mock democracy by conducting a fake electoral exercise the result of which is known to everyone. The most popular party is kept out of the process and the most liked leaders are put behind bars. Military will control the elections and police, bureaucracy or judiciary all are dancing to the tunes of “Pindi Boys”, a term used for the Pakistani Army since their headquarters is in Rawalpindi. What is going to be the future is still under wraps, but one thing is certain, the upcoming elections are going to be a final trigger towards an imploding Pakistan.

The author is a veteran of the Armed Forces. He is a known Defence Strategist with keen interests in international affairs, maritime security, terrorism and internal security.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA.)