Punjab elections are a four-cornered election this time. Aam Aadmi Party, Congress, Akali Dal and BJP+ Captain Amarinder Singh's alliance. The talk of change in Punjab is on the lips of most people. People believe that we tried both the Congress and Akalis, but their problems were not solved. That is why they want to try the Aam Aadmi Party this time.
Be it chowk chauraha or the people standing around the polling booth, the trend about Aam Aadmi Party was clearly seen.
However, there are two kinds of discussions about who will form the government in Punjab. The first is that either the Aam Aadmi Party government will be formed by a majority or there will be a hung assembly. But even in a hung situation, the Aam Aadmi Party will emerge as the single largest party.
As far as Congress is concerned, it is being said that it will be at number two. The biggest reason for this is that the talk of Chief Minister Channi losing one of the two seats and the fact that party president Navjot Sidhu's own seat is stuck. By the way, people certainly believe that if there was an election under the leadership of Captain, the Congress would have gone to number three. Channi has put the party in the fight in a short time, that is, in about 100 days.
Though the talk that linked Kejriwal to the Khalistan case has hurt the Aam Aadmi Party, less than last time. Because the matter was raised too late this time. In the 2017 elections, about 20 days before the polling, there was a case of Bhatinda blast and Kejriwal staying at the house of a Khalistani. By then, people knew little about Kejriwal and the opposition parties had also got time to campaign against him. The impact of this issue has been less visible in the interaction with the people.
Aam Aadmi Party also seems to be losing Baba Ram Rahim's appeal to vote in favour of the BJP and Akalis. Because a large number of supporters of Ram Rahim were going to vote for the Aam Aadmi Party, but now the situation has changed.
Area wise, Punjab is divided into 3 regions. The first is Malwa which has 69 seats, the second is Manjha 25 and the third is Dwaba 23 region.
Aam Aadmi Party had performed well last time in The Malwa Region as well. Most of the 20 seats came from this region. The equation for forming the government will depend on the performance of the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party in this region. At the same time, if the Aam Aadmi Party manages to enter the Manjha and Dwaba region, then its government is certain. Otherwise, Punjab will move towards a hung assembly.
There is also a fear of a hung assembly among the people, as voters angry with Modi and THE BJP after the farmers' agitation do not want to see Modi's rule in Punjab through President's rule at any cost. Anyway, there has always been a majority government in Punjab, leave alone the 1967 and 1969 elections.
Talking about the caste equation, there are about 35 per cent Dalit voters here. Due to Charanjit Channi being a Dalit, the Congress is expected to benefit the most in this vote bank, on the other hand, the Aam Aadmi Party is also claiming to come to power with the help of this vote bank. In the Dalit vote bank, 60% are likely to go with the Congress and 40% with the Aam Aadmi Party.
At number two are 20% Jat Sikh voters. Of these, Aam Aadmi Party, Akali Dal and Congress will go to different localities and candidates. It is believed that the first choice of Jat Sikh voters is the Aam Aadmi Party, the reason for this is Bhagwant Mann's CM face. At number two will be Akalis and third will be Congress.
Apart from this, the number of Hindu voters is also fine. This will benefit the BJD alliance the most. The Aam Aadmi Party is also making a dent in it, but after the news of Kejriwal's involvement with Khalistan, the mood of Hindu voters is said to have changed. Because they may have to bear the brunt of the unrest in Punjab the most.
Finally, it can be said that looking at the voting and voter's attitude of Punjab today, it can be said that now it is the turn of Punjab to either the AAP government or the hung government. The possibility of a repeat of the Congress government is negligible.
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