The tightrope of counterterrorism: Internal Security Imperatives of Pak and the Afghan Conundrum

Pakistan has launched a fresh military campaign targeting militant groups and address the recent rise in armed violence, but some worry that this could increase tensions with the Taliban government in nearby Afghanistan. The government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has called the new operation, Azm-e-Istehkam, which translates into ‘Resolve for Stability’ in Urdu. This is the newest effort in a string of operations that Pakistan’s military has undertaken to combat militant groups.

Over the past two years, there has been a sharp rise in violent attacks in the South Asian country. So far this year, at least 62 soldiers, including two officers, have died in such attacks. The military reported that it had killed 249 terrorists and arrested 396 more in over 13,000 intelligence-based operations.

Most of these attacks have been claimed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group of Islamist militant organizations. The TTP has been fighting against the state in an effort to overthrow the government. The TTP aims to transform Pakistan into an Islamic state ruled by its strict interpretation of Islamic law.

Safe haven in Afghanistan: The TTP shares its ideology with the Afghan Taliban, which took control of Afghanistan in 2021 as the US and NATO forces were completing their withdrawal after a 20-year conflict. Since then, Islamabad has frequently accused Kabul of giving the TTP a safe haven in Afghan territory, a claim that the Afghan Taliban has denied.

The mountainous Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in northwest Pakistan has long been a hub for Islamist militant groups, including the TTP and the local branch of the Islamic State group. The TTP unilaterally terminated a cease-fire with the Pak government in November 2022.

As a result, Pakistan’s new strategy may focus on radicals crossing the border from Afghanistan. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has warned that the military will not hesitate to strike targets within Afghanistan. When asked by a foreign media outlet about the possibility of cross-border attacks to control militants, he affirmed that nothing was more important than the country’s sovereignty.

A senior security official, speaking anonymously to DW, said that decisive action would be taken against terrorists. Operations would target anti-state anarchists and religious extremists, regardless of their sect or religion. Maria Sultan, a defence analyst in Islamabad, explained that the operation aimed to uphold the determination to maintain stability and tackle the rise in terrorist activities in the country.

Escalating Af-Pak Tensions: However, some worry that the new military operation could worsen tensions between Islamabad and Kabul’s Taliban leaders. Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the timing of this new counter-terror operation showed that Pakistan had run out of options for negotiating with the TTP and had been asking the Afghan Taliban to put pressure on the TTP. She noted that efforts to negotiate with the TTP and to pressure them have both failed.

In March, Pakistan carried out rare airstrikes in Afghanistan, targeting suspected hideouts of Pakistani militant groups which killed eight people and led the Afghan forces to fire back across the border. Afzal highlighted that the Taliban claimed they would see Pak attacks on Afghan territory as “a violation of their sovereignty”. She also observed that this would increase tensions with the Taliban and make Pakistan’s western border even more unstable.

Ex-PM Imran Rejects Military Op: Not everyone in Pakistan supports the military campaign. Last week, Imran Khan, Pak’s former prime minister who is currently in jail, said he was against starting any new military operations in the northwest and southwest regions of the country. He also instructed his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party to oppose the military campaign. The PTI is currently in charge of the provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Khan is against any new military operations anywhere in the country. Ali Amin Gandapur, the province’s chief minister, after meeting Khan on Monday (July 1), said outside the jail that Khan had instructed that the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government should not participate in any decisions regarding these new military actions.

A senior PTI leader, who spoke to DW anonymously, mentioned that the military would face difficulties in carrying out the operation. He also said that the real question was whether the military could build agreement on this issue and added that it seemed that the entire leadership of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa opposed the military operation, making it hard to carry out.

Osama Malik, a political commentator and constitutional expert, expressing doubts about the campaign’s chances of success, said that, in a province where the military was already unpopular, this could cause the operation to fail in achieving its goals. He added that, without PTI support, the federal government might have to impose governor’s rule in the province. This could lead to political workers protesting in the streets, causing even more chaos.

However, Sultan, the defence analyst, emphasised that a strong effort at the federal level was needed. He believes this will, possibly, be accepted by all provinces since the goal was to protect the people of Pakistan from terrorism.

Pressure on Pak from China: Some observers believe that attacks on Chinese nationals and investments in Pakistan have led Islamabad to start the latest military campaign. In March, an attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers killed at least five Chinese workers and one Pakistani. Less than a week earlier, Pakistani security forces had killed eight separatists from the Baluchistan Liberation Army. These separatists had attacked a convoy carrying Chinese citizens near the Chinese-funded Gwadar port in the unstable southwestern Baluchistan province.

Beijing, one of Islamabad’s main allies, has invested billions of dollars in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This includes many large projects, such as building roads, power plants and agricultural developments. There are an estimated 29,000 Chinese nationals in Pakistan, with over 2,500 of them working on CPEC projects. CPEC is crucial for Pakistan’s financially struggling government, which is currently dealing with one of its worst economic crises.

Afzal mentioned that, during the recent visit to China by Pakistani PM Sharif and army chief Asim Munir in June, the joint statement highlighted the importance of security. Chinese pressure, especially regarding domestic security issues, had pushed Islamabad to launch a major operation against militants targeting Chinese nationals working on CPEC projects. Malik said.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)