Narendra Modi's annus horribilis

At the close of 2014, nothing, absolutely nothing, could be said to be going against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP. The tsunami of popular support that had propelled the BJP to a majority in the Lok Sabha, the first such verdict in three decades, and swept Modi to the Prime Minister's office, may have had abated, but it was still high tide.

With a string of victories in State Assembly elections, Modi appeared invincible, the BJP unstoppable. From Madison Square Garden to Malabar, the applause and adulation made the Congress appear further diminished; the others did not matter and were not worthy of a second glance.

It was, to use the quaint Latin phrase, Modi's, and by extension the BJP's, annus mirabilis, a year so marvelous that the leader and his party, successful beyond their wildest imagination, came to believe that their triumphalism would prevail in 2015 too. As the year draws to a close, that euphoric triumphalism has not only been proven to be misplaced, it has been replaced by the sobering reality that neither is Modi invincible nor the BJP unstoppable.

Simply put, if 2014 was annus mirabilis, 2015 was annus horribilis, a year so horrible that Modi and the BJP would have been counting the days to the final sunset on December 31. And desperately hoping that 2016 would see, to quote Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, the restoration of status quo ante, with the government in command of both narrative and agenda as it was in 2014.

Any politician not given to sanctimonious woolly-headed notions of righteousness and morality will tell you that politics is more about perception than reality. If the perception is that of a government unable to perform and deliver, the reality, no matter how vastly different from this perception, ceases to matter.

What strengthens the perception is electoral failure. The BJP's crushing defeat in the Delhi Assembly election could have been written off as an aberration if Modi would have won Bihar. Some would argue neither verdict would have mattered (after all no party can win every election) had the Prime Minister not invested so heavily in either election. Since that was not the case, the defeat is as much of the BJP as of Modi, if not more.

Yet it would be facetious to suggest that 2015 was a wasted year. It wasn't. Although a lot of political capital was needlessly expended on the Land Acquisition Bill, there were many gains too, for the government and the country. If the primary reason why Modi was voted to power was to put the Indian economy back on the rails, then he has not disappointed.

India is the fastest growing economy. It has attracted the highest amount of foreign direct investment. 'Make in India' is beginning to spur manufacturing. Big ticket infrastructure projects have begun to take shape and form. Power generation has increased remarkably. Indian Railways is poised on the cusp of transformational change. The list does not end there.

Globally, the 'India Story' is once again eliciting interest. Modi is acknowledged as a strong leader. India is seen as a natural contender for regional leadership. With China, India is viewed as a rising power, not at par of course, but not lacking in potential to be at par either. From the majestic isolation of the previous decade, India is once again actively engaged with its neighbours.

But a dhobi list of successes at home and abroad, no matter how real, does not guarantee immunity from debilitating perception. Poor expectation management and near-nonexistent communication can only further exacerbate the problem posed by perception swamping reality. We are witnessing both.

Had it been otherwise, laudable initiatives like financial inclusion and social safety schemes for the excluded would have dominated public discourse. We would have heard a lot more chatter on low inflation, higher disposable income and better services. We don't.

Instead, high food prices, symbolised by this government's unbelievably spectacular failure in anticipating and preventing extraordinarily high prices of pulses, which is the main source of protein for the masses, and sluggish industrial production for reasons that are beyond New Delhi's control, dominated public discourse.

Rising rural distress on account of two successive droughts distracted attention from the government's achievements. Further distraction was ensured by impatient supporters aggressively pushing a poorly articulated cultural agenda, thus providing a handle to the usual suspects. Manufactured rage over 'mounting intolerance' had its desired effect.

The mocking attacks by an Opposition revived and revitalised after halting Modi's march in Bihar and the stalling of key reforms like the introduction of a uniform Goods and Services Tax through the cynical means of stalling proceedings in Parliament were not met with popular anguish and anger as they would have a year ago. The government's disconnect with the people began to show early this year; it became glaring by the year-end.

Truth be told, in popular perception not only the party but also the government appear 'emasculated'. The BJP's club of the superannuated, also known as the Margdarshak Mandal, was no doubt being spiteful when it bemoaned the 'emasculation' of the party under the joint leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. But LK Advani knows what best resonates with the masses when the chips are down.

The real tragedy of this government lies in its abysmal failure to stay connected with the very people who voted it to power. Modi was and remains a master communicator. Yet he has chosen to step back, electing not to communicate directly. Instead, he is perceived as seeking to transmit messages back home while addressing NRI rallies on foreign shores.

That has clearly not worked. If anything, domestic interest in Modi's rockshows abroad has waned. The speeches now sound monotonously the same. The novelty has worn off. The messaging is lost. An implacably hostile media has not helped the government to shore up its faltering image.

There's still three years to go before the government gets into election mode. But Modi can't afford to let another year go by; 2016 has to be the year of redemption, the year when status quo ante is restored. For that to happen, Modi must lead from the front. That is not an option.

He must begin talking to the people, reassuring them, allaying their fears, addressing their apprehensions. Fireside chats like his monthly 'Mann ki Baat' won't do the trick. It has to be direct. It has to be spontaneous. If he can wade into crowds of cheering NRIs abroad, surely he can do that in India too.

Second, Modi has to regain control over the narrative and start setting the agenda. He cannot afford to outsource this task to either his party or his ministerial colleagues. They have proved unequal to the task. India voted for a proactive Prime Minister, not a reactive government.

Third, Modi should worry about the middle-classes, including what he once termed the neo middle-class, drifting away, slowly but surely, from him. The first two Budgets of his government were pointedly indifferent to the middle-classes. A third successive Budget that snubs them would be to his detriment.

Fourth, Modi will have to recalibrate the BJP's expectations as well as expectations from the BJP, based on a realistic assessment of what can and cannot be achieved by way of winning elections. The BJP does not have a ghost of a chance to notch up a decent figure in West Bengal. Investing political capital in that State would be futile. Assam appears a better option. Let the BJP focus on this state with minimum exposure to the Prime Minister.

Last though not the least, Modi will have to stop relying heavily on the bureaucracy. Barring the odd bureaucrat (Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar and DIPP Secretary Amitabh Kant come to mind) few wish him and his government success.

The awfully, unthinkably wretched manner in which the bureaucracy handled the sensitive issue of one-rank, one-pension, alienating vast sections of the veterans community from this government and bringing Modi's political commitment into doubt, is a shining example why the Prime Minister has erred in trusting babudom. It hasn't worked, it won't work.

More than the BJP, it was Modi who brought about a tectonic shift in India's political landscape in 2014. Both Modi and the BJP lost the momentum in 2015. It is now for Modi to regain the momentum and restore the faith that has begun to waver. In brief, whether 2016 proves to be annus mirabilis largely depends on drastic course correction by Modi.