No more 'Lanka Chini Bhai Bhai'?

“Ethnic cleansing may help you win a war, not an election.” This Facebook post by a senior journalist in Chennai is a reflection of the sentiment among sections of the intelligentsia in Tamil Nadu after the change of guard in Sri Lanka. The almost triumphant mockery at Mahinda Rajapaksa's defeat, flowing from the angst over the killing of innocent Tamils by an oppressive Rajapakse regime, that was emboldened post its decimation of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), was expected.

While there were the 'you had it coming' brickbats for the vanquished Lankan leader, there were no publicised congratulatory messages for the new President Maithripala Sirisena, from the political spectrum down South. The most vociferous Rajapaksa baiter and Eelam supporter- MDMK Chief Vaiko's sense of guarded skepticism is because he, as do many pro Tamil rabble-rousers, still view the new leader through the prism of Sinhala majoritarianism. Sirisena is, after all, a break away colleague from the erstwhile President's camp. Even during his campaign, Sirisena ruled out pulling out the Army from Tamil-dominated North or the possibility of breaking bread with Tamil hardliners.

In the event of normal political permutations, a party in Tamil Nadu with 37 out of 39 MPs could have had New Delhi dance to its tunes. A demand like one reiterated by DMK supremo M Karunanidhi for an international inquiry into the war crimes against ethnic Tamils during the civil war, would have swiftly followed a lukewarm or a downplayed telephonic greeting to the new President. But you see 2014 was not quite 2009 or 2004. With the BJP needing no allies, its foreign policy need not be dictated by regional or coalition compulsions.

Moreover, with Rajapaksa in the wilderness, along with his controversial brother and even his astrologer who advised him on early polls, political parties, particularly fringe groups that sought to gain legitimacy by tom-toming Eelam, have lost their favourite whipping post.

Over the last few years, Tamil Nadu has witnessed a rather routine script regarding Sri Lanka. Tamil fishermen have been arrested, or worse, fired upon by the Lankan Navy. Rajapaksa has been greeted with black flags on many of his visits to India. There has been a steady stream of letters from Former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa to the Prime Minister seeking the Centre's intervention for the release of fishermen, a practice continued by the present stopgap, Chief Minister O Paneerselvam. There was also the demand for a retrieval of the island Katchatheevu that was ceded to Lanka, an assembly resolution calling for the prosecution of the fallen President for war crimes and even a strict 'No Entry' sign for Sri Lankan sportsmen in the state.

That Prime Minister Narendra Modi can afford to and will act on his own vis-à-vis​ the island nation, is a foregone conclusion. It was evident when he wished Sirisena well for the election on the sidelines of the SAARC Summit in Nepal and invited him to visit India post his recent victory. Tamil parties will have to grin and bear the sight of the new Lankan President being hosted in New Delhi. The Lankan card may have been extensively waved by all parties during the 2009 Lok Sabha poll and the 2011 assembly election, but it didn't turn out to be a significant electoral issue. The most die hard champion of the Tamil cause – Vaiko lost the election from Virudhnagar twice, ironically to a Congress candidate Manick Tagore in 2009, soon after the war and in the wake of the disenchantment with the UPA government for not doing its bit to protect the Tamils.

However, the BJP in Tamil Nadu, which was once ridiculed for its 'Gingee Fort to Fort St. George' ambition—that is hoping to cash in on Jayalalithaa's legal setback, the DMK's family politics and the Modi brand of 'Acche Din' optimism—may not want to risk riding roughshod over Tamil emotions. That would probably explain its Union Minister Venkaiah Naidu's call to the new Lankan dispensation to implement the 13th amendment on devolution of powers to meet the aspirations of ethnic Tamils.

Sirisena cannot be expected to change his spots but his Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe is regarded as a friend of India. Geo-politically, this may translate into a dilution of the China factor in the overall scheme of things. All along, in the face of Tamil Nadu-induced pressure from India to give the ethnic minority a better deal, the Sri Lankan regime was known to cosy up to China as a prophylactic strike. Will the 'Lanka Chini Bhai Bhai', rather 'Lanka Chini Malli Malli', be placed on the backburner? Or will the zero-sum geopolitical grandstanding go on?

Also Read: Is the defeat of Mahenda Rajapaksa bad news for China?

(Sanjay Pinto is a Lawyer, Columnist, Author & Former Resident Editor – NDTV 24x7)​