As prime minister Manmohan Singh heads for the US on a state visit, India is at risk of being “blinded” by its China “blinkers” and holding its relations with the US hostage to a “fixated and flawed” view of Sino-US entente, say analysts and former diplomats.
Serious strains in Sino-US relations are showing up barely days after US president Barack Obama concluded a conciliatory visit to China, and ahead of Singh’s visit to the US. These belie the paranoid perception from New Delhi that an emerging Washington-Beijing entente is selling India’s interests short. In particular, a paragraph in the Sino-US joint statement at the conclusion of Obama’s visit, which commits the two countries to promoting peace in South Asia, has given rise to much Indian angst over China being given a “policing role” over Indo-Pakistan relations.
Some analysts caution against the risk of investing too much authority to sentiments reflected in joint statements. “A joint statement is less binding than, say, a joint declaration,” points out Pang Zhongying, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “If the two sides were sure they wanted to work together, they would have issued a declaration.”
But more significantly, Indian perceptions of congruity in American and Chinese interests overlook the strains in Sino-US ties that are exposing the serious mistrust between them. Barely days after Obama left China with reassuring words of conciliation, the US has accused China of sharply stepping up “aggressive” espionage. Additionally, a political backlash against the Obama administration’s silence on China’s currency-manipulation is heightening the risk of a trade and economic war between them.
The US-China Economic Security Review Commission report, released on Friday, accused China of being the “most aggressive country conducting espionage against the US.” It also voiced concerns that Hong Kong is “serving as a way station for illegal dual-use technology exports” into mainland China.
According to Pang, the report is a dampener on the lofty sentiments articulated during Obama’s visit, and “shows that the Sino-US relationship is still very complicated.” Both sides, he adds, have “a lot to do” to balance relations. Yu Wanli, an associate professor at Peking University, too says that the report points to “the lack of mutual trust” between China and the US.
US lawmakers, including Democrats, are also turning the heat on the Obama administration for its failure to confront China over its artificial pegging of the yuan to the US dollar, which they believe contributes to ruinous trade and economic imbalances.
China, in turn, has become openly – and hysterically – critical of US fiscal and monetary policy management, and its pursuit of a weak dollar policy that is devaluing China’s dollar-denominated holdings.
