Pakistan had slim chances of qualifying for the semi-finals of the 2023 ICC World Cup even before their match against South Africa on Friday (27 October). However, following a heartbreaking one-wicket defeat, their chances have significantly diminished.
Now, the question arises: can they still secure a spot in the top four? The answer is yes, but it would require nothing short of a miraculous performance. Perhaps, even a dozen miracles.
So, let's put on our mathematical thinking caps and delve into the numbers.
Before delving into the intricacies of permutations and combinations, it is crucial to grasp Pakistan's present standing. Led by Babar Azam, the Pakistani cricket team currently occupies the sixth position in the points table, having secured two victories out of six games.
Next on their agenda is a highly anticipated clash against Bangladesh on the 31st of October, set to take place at the iconic Eden Gardens in Kolkata. Following this encounter, they will embark on a journey to Bengaluru, where they will face off against New Zealand. Finally, they will return to Kolkata to confront the formidable English team.
How can Pakistan still qualify?
First and foremost, Pakistan needs to emerge victorious in all of their remaining three matches. This will elevate their points to 10, and subsequently, they must rely on the outcomes of other matches to align in their favor.
Now, let us delve into the requirements for Pakistan to secure a spot in the semi-finals by examining the results of the other teams:
Australia
Australia loses three of their next four matches. In an ideal scenario for Pakistan, Australia manages to defeat New Zealand but falters in their remaining three matches. Consequently, Australia's points tally dwindles to a mere 8, while Pakistan secures a solid 10 points.
Furthermore, if Australia were to lose two out of their next four matches, it would create an opportunity for Pakistan. However, in this case, Pakistan's fate would hinge on the Net Run Rate to advance.
New Zealand
New Zealand loses all of their remaining matches, while Sri Lanka and Afghanistan each lose at least two out of their next four matches.
Pakistan has a chance to undermine New Zealand's prospects when the two teams face off on November 4, as long as New Zealand doesn't win both of their upcoming matches.
If New Zealand ends up with only 8 points, Pakistan can potentially finish with 10 points.
However, if Pakistan and New Zealand end up with a tie at 10 points, Pakistan would require a series of favorable outcomes and a significant boost in their Net Run Rate.
