DNA Explainer: How the Maharashtra crisis can be averted, possible situations

The political crisis in Maharashtra is deepening with each passing hour and it now seems that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government may fall anytime soon. Shiv Sena has issued a whip to all the party MLAs to attend a meeting called at 5 pm today. The membership of the MLAs who do not attend this meeting can be cancelled.

Rebel Shiv Sena minister Eknath Shinde and a number of other MLAs loyal to him are currently camped in Guwahati, Assam. So, before we delve into the possibilities of what can happen in Maharashtra politics, let us see how the statistics of the Maharashtra Assembly stands.

Read | '46 MLAs with me, no offer from BJP yet': Rebel Sena leader Eknath Shinde amid Maharashtra political crisis

How the number stands?

There are 288 members in the Maharashtra assembly, of which one seat is vacant. The effective strength of the House, therefore, is 287.

The Shiv Sena has 55 members, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has 53 members and Congress has 44 members.

However, for NCP, two members - Nawab Malik and Anil Deshmukh are in jail and therefore, will likely not be allowed to participate in assembly proceedings.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) has the support of three smaller parties and nine independent members. Together, the MVA has 166 members.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has 106 MLAs. It is backed by two smaller parties and four independents. Together, its strength is 112 in the house.

Besides, there are nine lawmakers across six political parties.

What are the political options in Maharashtra?

Speaking with ANI, Shiv Sena rebel Eknath Shinde said that presently, 46 MLAs are with him  including 6-7 Independent MLAs. Rest of them are Shiv Sena MLAs. This number will rise in the time to come. To legally break away from Shiv Sena, Shinde needs two-thirds of the party's strength, that is 37 members on his side. 

If Eknath Shinde manages to get this magic number, then his faction will be able to legally break off from the Shiv Sena without attracting disqualification under the anti-defection law. If such a situation arises, the Maha Vikas Aghadi will find it very tough to prove its majority in a floor test and the government will likely fall.

If no agreement is reached

Supopose Eknath Shinde does not reach an agreement with either the BJP or the Maha Vikas Aghadi, it may lead to a constitutional crisis in Maharashtra. If such a situation arises, the Governor can either recommend President's Rule or order a floor test.

If a floor test happens, there are chances that the Maha Vikas Aghadi may have an advantage. On the contrary, if President's Rule is imposed, it will almost certainly be challenged in court, and precedents show that the Supreme Court will favour a trust vote.

CM averts the biggest political crisis of his career

Though this seems quite unlikely in the present situation, if Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray can manage to talk and sort of differences with his one-time lieutenant Eknath Shinde. The two had spoke over the phone on Tuesday evening for about 10 minutes.

If this crisis can be averted then Uddhav Thackeray will be able to save his government for the time being. However, in that scenario Eknath Shinde will return likely in an expanded role and the rebellion is sure to hurt the authority and stature of the Chief Minister.