Decoded: Narendra Modi's Bihar strategy

Narendra Modi visited Bihar on Saturday, and in his inimitable oratorical flourish took a sweep at Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. The Bihar assembly elections are still a good two-three months away but Modi in his Muzaffarpur’s speech left behind some vital clues about BJP’s strategy in the upcoming elections, deemed as an existential fight for the ‘secular forces’ in the country.

Acche din 2.0

The tried and tested formula of tapping the aspirational class to give them hope of the elusive acche din will also be put to work in Bihar. Narendra Modi in his speech referred to the Gujarat model of development and how similar programmes can be implemented in Bihar. It was his strategy to counter Nitish Kumar’s 'working CM' image.

He later went on to even point at mythological connections between Gujarat and Bihar! It is very clear that Modi wants to win Bihar by the dint of his own charisma, harping on factors that have worked elsewhere. He wants to particularly tap into the large youth demography and hopes that they vote for the NDA, cutting across caste and other factors.

Fuelling a division between Lalu and Nitish:

It’s an open secret that although Lalu and Nitish have come together to protect their political fiefdom, they are yet to bury the hatchet. Infact, Nitish’s politics for a very long time has been a complete antithesis to the one practised by Lalu. More specifically, Nitish’s success is often measured in comparison to Lalu’s failure earlier. So on and off, there will be some bitterness between the two. Modi, by raking up the snake-poison remark of Nitish, has made it amply clear that BJP will try to sledgehammer this chasm between the two Janata leaders. The division is likely to further increase when the ticket selection gets over. There will be hordes of disgruntled leaders and they may well be ‘encouraged’ to stand as independents.

The Yadavs and Muslims with Kurmis together compose nearly one-third of Bihar's electorate, who are expected to steadfastly support the Nitish-Lalu combination. Thus, dividing the votes of the so-called secular alliance is almost imperative if NDA has to harvest any realistic possibility of passing the Bihar test.

Stoking the caste cauldron

Modi may have denounced caste politics in Bihar before, but when push comes to the shove, it seems like he will not shy away from using it liberally. Just like in a master stroke he inverted the ‘neechi rajneeti’ comment made by Priyanka Gandhi during the Lok Sabha elections, Modi raked up the issue of a chai-wallah’s son being denied rice, to puncture holes in Nitish Kumar’s credentials among the backward classes. He then raised the issue of a Mahadalit (Jitan Ram Manjhi) being denied his rights by Nitish Kumar.

As of now, the 'secular alliance' simply has a larger social base to fall back upon. Jitan Ram Manjhi, a product of Nitish Kumar’s sanctimonious misadventure is therefore all important to Modi’s equation. He needs to wean away votes of the backward classes along with the likes of Upendra Khushwaha and Ram Vilas Paswan to get BJP back in the game. As the Nielson survey showed, the NDA alliance is currently 11% behind the Janata Parivar, an arduous but not impossible gap to overcome.

'Nitish the backstabber- Lalu the marauder'

Modi knows it’s difficult to attack Nitish Kumar on his governance record, especially since for most of the time, BJP was a partner in the government. Hence, Nitish will be projected as someone who can’t keep peace with his contemporaries, a sort of untrustworthy person who only cares for his personal interests. The PM even raked up the name of George Fernandes- a veteran socialist and former Defence Minister of the country who famously fell out with Nitish. The irony of Narendra Modi levelling this allegation was hard to miss though.

When it comes to Lalu, the plain and simple formula will be of evoking fear in the minds of voters that the dark days will be back if the Janata Parivar gets elected. Modi repeatedly said that RJD means 'Rojana Jangal raj ka Dar', a straightforward warning to people. This may well resonate, particularly with upper classes, who otherwise may be tempted to vote for Nitish, keeping in mind his developmental records.

Keeping all possible CM candidates interested

Modi took an abnormally long time to mention a laundry list of virtually every leader present on stage, prompting a colleague to quip that "it was the most boring Oscar thanksgiving speech ever". The simple rationale though is to keep all the senior leaders representing different castes in loop and interested for the possible big prize if NDA do manage to come to power in Bihar.

So something like a Kiran Bedi afterthought can be virtually ruled out here, even though the initial opinion polls show a tough road ahead for the saffron alliance. Battle-hardened Modi knows a win in Bihar can break the backbone of opposition resistance not only in the states but also in Parliament where he could then get a relatively smooth ride for some time at least. However, a defeat will not only energise and embolden the opposition, but similar experiments may then prop up in other states too. Most importantly, the government may be forced to do some cut and tear to calm the opposition’s rage.

With many things to play for, Modi the master strategist has just thrown his first dice. The special package for Bihar will be announced at a strategic time to reap maximum dividends. Will it change the present dynamics? Let's wait and watch.