Decoded: Trinamool Congress' stunning performance in the West Bengal Civic Polls

The results are in and expectedly, the TMC has swept the civic polls in West Bengal. While dna had correctly predicted that the party will cruise to victory in a majority of the 92 municipalities, the nature of domination of the ruling party has flummoxed many. Also, BJP's complete whitewash has come as a shocker, especially after party president Amit Shah launched his ambitious Mission 2016 for West Bengal and made a splash in the state, linking the Saradha scam to the Burdwan blast to start with. Even after 24 hours, opposition parties are still smarting from their losses. TMC while sitting pretty has a few worries of its own specially with loss of an influential minority leader in Kolkata. 

Let's analyse what led to this massive one-sided result in which TMC won 70 out of 92 municipalities, including the prized Kolkata Municipality corporation hands down. 

The TINA factor: 

The TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor is the biggest aspect currently dominating Bengal politics. Hate her or love her, Mamata Banerjee is the most respectable and recognisable face in Bengal politics right now and people have essentially voted in her name. She is reaping the benefits of her two-and-half decade long stoic resistance against the Left. 

The Left fatigue

The Left have marginally salvaged their position compared to the dismal result in the Lok Sabha election last year. This is mainly owing to clever candidate selection, giving tickets to youngsters and individuals not directly related to the party. The Left is also trying to engineer a generation change in the party with younger faces like Ritobrata Bhattacharya coming to the forefront. Under Suryakanta Mishra, the Left has managed to also galvanise some public opinion against the ruling regime.

But it is still a work in progress and people of Bengal are still not willing to give the Left a chance post changing their affiliation after 34 years. Still, winning Siliguri will come as a shot in the armour for the Left. At least the massive slide in vote share has been arrested and they can start to build on from here. The Left parties are talking about repeating the Siliguri model in other parts of the state. Much more difficult to implement than merely saying though. 

BJP: more talk, less action 

The BJP's vote share propelled to a historic high of 17 percent in the last Lok Sabha election in Bengal. But rather than taking off from there, the party's future has gone down, thanks  to a series of missteps and lack of any credible leadership at the state level. BJP's Central leaders have to realise that parachuting leaders into Bengal will not help. They have to nurture good local talents here. Also, the party needs to be more prudent about getting on board defectors from other parties. The amount of dissents witnessed during the ticket distribution painted the party in a negative light. 

Siddharth Nath Singh's last ditch desperate attempt questioning Abhishek Banerjee's educational qualification also boomeranged. Infact, on the flipside, the perception of BJP's rise only helped TMC. It firmly got the minority vote bank to support it, to stop the rise of the saffron unit. 

Congress: Just a marginal force 

Congress is only slipping down and further down, with its footprint virtually non-existent in south Bengal. It still remains some sort of a force in state president Adhir Chowdhury's hometurf where it collected all its victory. But it is certainly a bad time to be a Congress supporter in the state as the party is virtually struggling to remain politically relevant.

What about all the charges of arm-twisting and violence? 

The opposition has virtually rejected the election result, claiming that the TMC used its machinery and compliant police force to virtually loot votes. Ironically, the same lament used to be repeated by the TMC when it was in the opposition, and CPIM was ruling the roost. The fact is, if people have made up their mind to vote out a regime, no police or cadre force can stop this. The violence is often generated from the over zealousness of the ruling party to ensure complete domination. So the final result would probably not be too different even without it. 

Is the Saradha scam a non issue? 

Well not really, but it is not a potent political issue. It is no secret that all politicians who were in the radius of power, hobnobbed with the chit fund company owners. Also, Mamata Banerjee's personal integrity is still unquestionable and hence all the hoopla regarding Saradha scam hasn't really affected TMC's poll fortunes. 

Photo credit: PTI

So, what next for TMC?  

It looks like the party is on track to win the Assembly election in 2016 quite easily. In every election from the 2008 Panchayat polls, the party has been on an upward curve and its point of inflection is yet to be reached. But it is up to Mamata and her party to now see how they can use this mandate in a positive way. Public opinion can be fickle and people shouldn't be taken for granted. 

The high-handed attitude of TMC workers on the ground may lead to their downfall.  There is already resenment among the people, but as of now TINA factor is helping them to survive. If she wants to leave a permanent legacy, Mamata Banerjee needs to take steps to check the arrest of brain drain in the state and bring investment by firming up infrastructure. Merely signing MOUs with glorious photo-ops can help get her PR machinery rolling, but will not help the state in the long run. A more pragmatic attitude on land acquisition can be the starting point. Going by Didi's track record though, one cannot be too optimistic. 

Is the opposition's fate hopeless?

There is an increasing buzz that the Congress and Left may actually join hands to put a united front against the TMC in 2016. The presence of Sitaram Yechury as CPIM chief also brightens this possibility. But considering the rigidity of parties like RSP and Forward Bloc, an open alliance looks unlikely. There may be a tacit alliance in some regions, especially in South Bengal, which has virtually become a TMC fortress. 

The Left will do good to complete the transition process, as only new leaders can give them some much needed oxygen and momentum. 

As for BJP, it is probably time for the party to go back to the drawing board and chalk out a fresh strategy. Rajiv Gandhi, after winning a historic mandate in 1984, thought that he could roll over the Left in Bengal. He failed miserably. It seems like history is destined to repeat, but this time, for Amit Shah and Narendra Modi.