Aayega toh Modi hi, say exit polls

On Sunday, minutes after the final votes were polled, media channels released their exit polls for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. And while the exact figures differed, all of them unanimously predicted a BJP victory. The ruling alliance's tally varied, from as much as 350 according to Panchari, to as low as 242 as per NETA-News X. An exit poll on Zee TV gave the NDA 300 seats and the UPA 128, while 'Others' could get 114.

While Times Now's exit polls gave the NDA 306 seats and 132 to the UPA, the CVoter-Republic poll forecast 287 and 128 seats for the NDA and UPA respectively. The CNN News18-Ipsos exit poll said the BJP-led alliance can win a whopping 336 seats with the party getting a majority on its own. It projected only 46 seats for the Congress and 82 for its allies.

And while every poll predicted the NDA will be the largest alliance in terms of seats won, two pollsters said the alliance will not be able to cross the magic figure of 272. ABP News-Nielsen and Neta-NewsX predicted that the ruling alliance may fall short of a majority, as they respectively gave it 267 and 242 seats. The two agencies predicted 127 and 164 seats respectively for the UPA.

A number of exit polls also predicted big losses for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, where it had won 71 seats in 2014, but is said to win between 22 seats (ABP-Nielsen) and 58 (Times Now). To offset this drop, however, it's slated to make gains in other states, even those it had hitherto never managed to win big in. In Odisha, for instance, the party is expected to win 15-19 seats (India Today), or at the very least, nine seats (ABP Neilsen). And in West Bengal, where the party had won just two seats in 2014, it's expected to claim 19-23 seats (India Today-Axis) or 18-26 seats (Republic).

But the biggest win for the NDA is said to come from Bihar, where according to India Today, it may win 38 out of 40 seats, while Times Now said it may win 30.

Even in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, states where Congress had formed governments after winning Assembly elections last year, the BJP is predicted to register comfortable wins. In Rajasthan, NDA will get 23 seats (India Today), while Panchari said it'll get nine out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, and ABP-Nielsen said the party will clinch 24 out of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh.

Seven-phase polling ended on Sunday for 542 out of 543 parliamentary seats in the country. Polling was deferred in Tamil Nadu's Vellore after a large amount of cash was seized. All votes will be counted on May 23.

In 2014, while almost nobody could predict the actual margin of BJP's win, every pollster did say the party, riding on the back of a massive Narendra Modi wave, would go on to win. Panchari had again given the NDA 340 seats, while the alliance fell just short of this at 336.

EXIT POLLS, ENTER NDA AGAIN

"Exit polls do not mean exact polls. Since 1999, most of the exit polls have gone wrong. So we have to wait for 23rd" 
— Venkaiah Naidu, Vice-President

"I don’t trust Exit Poll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip." 
— Mamata Banerjee, TMC chief

"What Narendra Modi has done in Gujarat by scoring repeat victories, the same phenomenon is today evident at a national scale"  
— GVL Narasimha Rao, BJP spokesperson

"Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off TV, log out of social media & wait to see if world is still spinning on its axis on 23rd"  
— Omar Abdullah, National Conference

"Silent voter will be king on May 23. Fear factor playing havoc with respondents in an ugly polarised election. UPA > NDA when real counting happens." 
— Sanjay Jha, Congress spokesman

IN NUMBERS

• 542 – Total number of constituencies
   
• Out of a total of 543 Lok Sabha seats, polling at Tamil Nadu’s Vellore constituency was deferred
   
• Simultaneous polling also took place for Odisha, Arunachal, Andhra Pradesh and Sikkim
   
• 272: The magic figure needed for a party to form govt now

POLL SIDELIGHTS

• Polling for the seven phases began on April 11. In all, the average voter turnout was 61.13 per cent. There were 7.27 crore voters, of whom 3.47 crore were women.
   
• West Bengal recorded the highest voter turnout among all states (73.40 per cent), while Bihar recorded the lowest (53.36 per cent)
   
• In all, over the month-and-a-half long poll season, 647 cases of paid news have been registered while 909 social media posts were removed from various platforms. This includes 650 from Facebook and 220 from Twitter.