It will not be an exaggeration to say that Alipurduars is one of the brightest prospects for BJP in a state where the party is hoping for a massive increase in the tally.
To come anywhere close to Amit Shah's target of winning 23 seats in West Bengal, BJP has to do very well in Northern part of the state. Alipurduars, located in North Bengal is one such seat where TMC and BJP are locked in a close fight. Unlike some other seats where BJP was off-mark in choosing candidates, it has got it correct in ST-reserved seat of Alipurduars.
In John Barla, they have a son of soil who was erstwhile leader of Adivasi Vikas Parishad. John has deep roots with the tea plantation workers, who are a key voting base in Alipurduars. Mamata Banerjee has accused BJP of fielding a rioter as there as some pending cases against John Barla.
In the campaign trail, both BJP and TMC have accused each other of doing precious little for tea workers. While Modi has accused Mamata of being a speedbreaker didi, Bengal CM has said that PM gave fake promises in 2014. Fact is that currently around five out of 65 tea gardens in Alipurduars are closed. Around 20 are struggling. Even those which are operational, workers are given a pittance wage of around Rs 165 daily. All this has lead to huge collective grievance in the area.
The challenge for John Barla is to ensure that the sentiment of voters are reflected in the EVM. John is expected to get a headstart where the adivasi voters are majorly located. With Bimal Gurung's backing, BJP may also get the majority of Gorkha votes.
However, incumbent Dasrath Tirkey would hope that Mamata Banerjee's development push in North Bengal is good enough for him to cross the line. Tirkey was a three-time MLA from RSP who joined TMC before last loksabha polls and won. From etching out the district of Alipurduars to providing funds for better connectivity, the area has been under the radar of TMC government. Tirkey will help that carries him through despite BJP's onslaught.
In 2014, Alipurduars saw proper three way fight with TMC, RSP and BJP getting almost same percentage of votes.
Left's fortunes have considerably tapered off in the last five years, and it is expected to be straight contest between TMC and BJP. Who benefits from attrition of Left voters, may determine the fate of Alipurduars.
RSP which has won the seat continuously from 1977 (when the seat was created) to 2009 has lost its sting as its stranglehold on the tea workers' union has weakened. Yet, Mili Oraon of RSP is expected to be a tough candidate and may damage fortunes of either BJP and TMC.
With huge number of Adivasis, Gorkhas and Hindu refugees who came from Bangladesh in the seat, BJP's plank of NRC for Bengal and ensuring that religious minorittes from neighbouring countries are rehabilitated is gaining traction.
TMC though is hoping that its work and organisation will help Tirkey to prevail. There are seven assembly segments in Alipurduars. They are Tufanganj, Kumargram, Kalchini, Alipruduars, Falakata, Madarihat, Nagrakata. The brewing discontent in the tea plantations of Alipurduars may finally become the x-factor in this constituency when it goes to polls on April 11
