Andhra, TN likely to decide endgame

When the results of the 2009 polls start unfurling on Saturday morning, all eyes will be on Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

These are the game changer states of Indian elections and, between them, they will decide which party or combination will rule in New Delhi.

The outcome here is critical for the Congress, which with allies won 77 of the 82 seats from these states in 2004. Though the BJP is not a factor in either, any dip in the Congress’ numbers in Andhra and TN will give it momentum in the race to be the single largest party.

As for the Third Front, its survival depends on the performance of two important partners, Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP-led alliance in Andhra and Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK-led alliance in TN.

In the 2004 and 1999 polls, both states presented a clear verdict by swinging decisively in one direction. But in 2009, two film stars have confused the main political players. For the first time perhaps, neither the Congress nor its principal opponents in these states are confident of their performance.

Going by the exit polls, Chiranjeevi and Vijayakanth have cut deeply into opposition votes to give the Congress an unexpected windfall in terms of seats. The NDTV poll has predicted a sweep of as many as 29 seats for the Congress in Andhra while the CNN-IBN poll gives it 23-24 seats.

In Tamil Nadu, Vijayakanth seems to have queered the pitch for the AIADMK. CNN-IBN sees a clean sweep for the Congress-DMK with a 47% vote-share as as against a 37% for the AIADMK.

NDTV predicts a split verdict with the UPA tipped to pick up 20 seats. It will be a historic first if either of these predictions comes true because TN usually swings from one Dravidian party to the other with every election. The last split result was recorded in 1996.

Congress leaders are not quite sure whether to believe the exit polls. By the history of failed exit poll results, the picture could be completely different when the ballot boxes are opened on Saturday.

For the moment, the two actors are heroes and are being actively wooed by the Congress.