The BJP is set for a sweeping victory in Gujarat, where it has been ruling since 1995. Even as counting was underway, trends showed the BJP leading in 154 seats, followed by the Congress at a distant second with 17 seats. The new entrant AAP also seems to be making significant inroads as it was leading in 5-6 seats.
The Gujarat poll results are in line with the exit poll predictions as the BJP cruises towards a seventh straight term. This makes the BJP the only party other than the Communist Party of India (Marxist) to have won seven straight assembly elections. The CPI(M), which ruled West Bengal for 34 years from 1977 to 2011, had also won seven straight elections.
Meanwhile, the poll outcome in Himachal Pradesh also seems to be falling in line with the exit poll predictions, with the Congress having an edge over the BJP in a closely fought battle.
Notably, no party has won a back-to-back election in Himachal Pradesh after 1985. If the BJP manages to retain power in the hill state, that would be another record.
The BJP's biggest wish, however, is to see the predictions of exit polls come true, which is registering its best-ever performance in Gujarat, while keeping power in Himachal Pradesh. Its best performance in Gujarat goes back to 2002 when the party had won 127 seats in the 182-member state assembly.
This time around, exit poll predictions for the BJP winning seats range from 117 to 151. If the results come in line with the median value of these predictions, the BJP would have surpassed its own record of 2002.
But the real icing on the cake will be if the BJP's tally touches the outer limit of the exit poll predictions - that is if it crosses the all-time record of 149 seats that the Congress had won in 1985 under the leadership of Madhavsinh Solanki.
If the BJP wins big in Gujarat and gets a majority in Himachal Pradesh, such a verdict will give the party a huge morale boost, enthuse its rank and file, and the impression that it is on track to win the 2024 Lok Sabha polls will be further strengthened, said Sanjay Kumar, co-director of Lokniti at the New Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
The party will feel more confident about its 2024 plan, said Sushila Ramaswamy, a professor at the Department of Political Science in Delhi's Jesus and Mary College. Be that as it may, exit polls are prone to going wrong.
Given the resentment over rising inflation, widespread job losses and corruption, especially in the rural areas, the final outcome may fall way short of both exit poll predictions and the BJP's expectations.
