Bengal Panchayat poll results decoded: BJP increases seats exponentially, emerges as threat to TMC in several pockets

Even as the entire focus of the country remains steadfast on the ongoing drama in Karnataka, a potential tectonic shape in polity is taking place in one of the most crucial battleground states of the country - West Bengal.

Many experts and even TMC would like to believe that the party has a virtual lock over the 42 Lok Sabha seats and is likely to win more than 90% of them, if not a clean sweep. TMC’s impressive performance in the panchayat also indicates its iron fist control over current political firmament in Bengal.

 Sure, the legitimacy of the victory has been tarnished by brazen muscle power showed by TMC with state machinery as a mute spectator, but as any observer of Bengal politics would tell you, that’s the norm.

Today, the emergence of mobile cameras is putting the spotlight on the atrocities that were the norm under Left rule.  The Left did the same during their heyday and it took popular support for Mamata’s TMC to beat them in their own game.

So, for BJP to become a truly credible opposition force in Bengal, it has to build a strong organisation and hope to cultivate ‘one son of the soil’ leader, who can take on Mamata’s might. The Panchayat result in Bengal is certainly a positive development for the party. At the outset, if you go by absolute numbers, especially at the Zilla Parishad level, BJP looks like a poor second. But look beyond the headline numbers and there are several green shoots for them.

Not only has the party improved its tally in gram panchayat level from 548 to 5759, it has increased in seats in 18 out of the 20 districts. In Panchayat Samitis, the party has seen even stunning rise of fortune shooting up to 764 seats from 33. It has improved at Zilla Parishad level also, going from 0 to 23.

It has got a bump primarily because of two reasons. One is Congress and CPI(M) supporters deserting ship to join them en masse perceiving them as the most credible opposition and second definitely is party’s steadily increasing stock across the country, which has also energized the Bengal unit.

 But in a first-past-the-post system, coming second gets you some pats on the back and few op-eds, but nothing tangible.

 So, is BJP destined to be a poor second to TMC for the near future? Ultimately, TMC won 34% of the seats without contest, and among the contested seats it has won 93% in Zilla Parishad, 80% in Panchayat Samiti, and 66% in Gram Panchayats. The party has won all the 20 Zilla Parishads and has blanked the opposition in 10 of them. So, TMC essentially is ruling the roost. But, the good news for BJP will be is that the party gave TMC a tough run for its money at gram panchayat level in several districts.

In Jhargram, BJP won 329 to TMC’s 399. In Purulia, BJP won 626 and TMC got 771. Up North, in Alipurduar, TMC won 594 and BJP got 307. In Malda, BJP got 531 seats, half of TMC’s haul. The party has made some dent in other districts of north Bengal too.

In South Dinajpur, BJP got 228 compared to TMC’s 607. In Jalpaiguri, TMC won 923, BJP won 308. In North Dinajpur TMC won 860 while BJP won 367.

Cutting across the state, the BJP has done well in ST seats, where the traditional RSS organisation has helped them.

BJP’s gain in Malda is significant at it comes at the behest of a reasonably strong leadership of Congress and Left. Communal polarisation may have played its part in BJP gaining traction in this border adjoining district. The burning down of Kalichak police station by goons hit national headlines with ‘what about Malda?’ becoming almost a meme for its consistent use by right-wingers on Twitter.

The party has done reasonably well in the aforementioned districts in the Panchayat samiti level too. However, in Zilla Parishad, BJP managed to enter double figure in Purulia only.

Looking at next year’s election, if Panchayat elections are anything to go by Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Coochbehar, Maldah Uttar, Malda Dakshin, Jhargram, Purulia Lok Sabha seats are definitely in play. The BJP has some ground game there, and it needs to build on the momentum with frequent visits from Central and state leadership.

On the flipside, BJP’s dismal performance in West Burdwan district indicates Babul Supriyo will have some difficulty in holding up on to his seat. BJP has a certain degree of acceptance among the urban middle-class electorate. But the problem for them is that South Bengal where major cities like Kolkata and Howrah are based have firmly stood by TMC in successive elections.

So, while PM Modi may be popular, the voters don’t necessarily go for the saffron outfit. The TMC’s factional fights have given BJP a foot in the door in Jangalmahal districts.

TMC has traditionally been weak in the tea belt of North Bengal and the core vote of Left and Congress is getting transferred there to BJP, so that it can put up a challenge. It is time for the party to opt for more rural based campaign strategy to woo the voters.

 Mamata Banerjee first tasted major success in rural Bengal in 2008, when TMC won 22% of the seats in Gram Panchayats. Next year, TMC and Congress alliance ended up winning 26 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats.

In 2 years, Didi became CM. BJP is unlikely to chart similar tragedy but it can use the Panchayat poll as the springboard to throw a serious challenge to TMC in around 10-12 Lok Sabha seats. That would be an honest and fruitful endeavour than trying to concentrate on all 42 constituencies.  The Karnataka model of optimising resources can actually work well in Bengal too.