BJP performance in Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland Assembly Elections: 2023 vs 2018 result, seat, vote share analysis

When results were announced for Assembly Elections in three northeast states on Thursday, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retained power in Tripura and piggybacked on regional allies to clinch victories in Meghalaya and Nagaland. 

Despite the morale-boosting win in Tripura, the ruling BJP saw its seat share dip slightly due to the upsets scripted by new party Tipra Motha and likely some anti-incumbency. In Nagaland, the BJP was on the winning side as the ally to the biggest single party,  the CM Neiphiu Rio-led Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). BJP will also likely be part of the government in Meghalaya as a minority ally as CM Conrad Sangma’s National People’s Party (NPP) couldn’t achieve majority.

Here’s an analysis of how the party performed in the three states in comparison to results it had achieved in the earlier Assembly polls in 2018.

Tripura

BJP’s move to replace unpopular CM Biplab Kumar Deb with Manik Saha appears to have worked as the party retained Tripura. While the final tally of the BJP-IPFT alliance was 10 less than 2018, it managed a majority with 33 seats in Tripura’s 60 member assembly. While the seat share of BJP declined by 4, IPFT was reduced from 8 in 2018 to just 1 in 2023. 

BJP seat share 2023: 32
BJP seat share 2018: 36
Seat change: -4
BJP vote share 2023: 38.97%
BJP vote share 2018: 43.59%
Swing: -4.62%

Meghalaya

The BJP had a similar performance winning two seats like last time. It is likely to be a part of Conrad Sangma’s alliance with Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma in touch with his Meghalaya counterpart. Despite the BJP accusing Sangma government as the “most corrupt” in the polling campaign, the channel to New Delhi is a big factor why the Meghalaya CM is likely to revive the old NPP-UDP-BJP alliance, as per political pundits.

BJP seat share 2023: 2
BJP seat share 2018: 2
Seat change: 0
BJP vote share 2023: 9.30%
BJP vote share 2018: 9.60%
Swing: -0.30%

Nagaland

The BJP retained its share in Nagaland in 2023. It will be part of the government of fifth-time CM and NDPP chief Neiphiu Rio. The NDPP-BJP alliance bettered its tally by 3 to 33 seats from 30 last time when it formed the government with support of 4 other MLAs (2 from NPP, 1 from JD (U) and 1 independent. The BJP saw an upswing in its vote share in Nagaland, where it is led by its charismatic party chief Temjen Imna Along.

BJP seat share 2023: 12
BJP seat share 2018: 12
Seat change: 0
BJP vote share 2023: 18.81%
BJP vote share 2018: 15.30%
Swing: +3.51%

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