Can Pakistan’s nukes get loose?

Unlikely, say Indian strategic experts. The army is still in control

NEW DELHI: Alarm bells about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of jihadi elements in that country have been ringing for quite sometime now. In fact, with the growing Talibanisation of the frontier region of Pakistan, the US and the rest of the Western world have been worried.

The New York Times’ recent report about the Bush administration spending up to $1 million to keep Pakistan’s nuclear weapons secure created quite a stir in India.  The government refused to comment officially, leaving it to the strategic community in New Delhi, which works closely with the establishment, to make public pronouncements. While there is some concern in New Delhi, there is no alarm so far. Analysts believe the Pakistan army is still very much in control and there is no real danger.

``There is always the worry about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons going loose,’’ says strategic analyst K. Subrahmanyam, ``If that happens we will be second in the line of attack. The first target will be the US, but if the jihadis cannot get to Washington, India will certainly be next.”

But Subrahmanyam adds, ``So long as the Pakistan army stays a cohesive force, the nuclear assets will remain secure. It is not a question of whether General Musharraf is in control or not. The issue here is so long as the Pakistan army remains a professional army, it will remain in effective control.’’ Subrahmanyam believes that even if Musharraf goes, his successor will make sure  the nuclear setup is well guarded.

The major worry will come if the army is divided and fighting each other.

Analyst G Balachandran, a visiting scholar at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, echoes Subrahmanyam’s views. ``Even if Musharraf is removed, when he outlives his usefulness to the military establishment, there is not much danger yet of jihadis getting their hand on radioactive material, because the Pakistani army remains well in control of the nuclear arsenal. If the US has helped to make Pakistan’s nuclear material secure, I am all for it. I am sure they have got guidance on high risk identification and suggestions on securing the perimeters from the Americans,’’ says Balachandran.

Analyst MK Bhadrakumar shrugs off the scare scenario: “Even during the time when Pakistan was having its clandestine nuclear programme, the area was always very well guarded. Pakistan has the institutional mechanism in place with the army in the forefront of guarding the nuclear installations.’’

Islamabad had on Monday said the report in The New York Times was exaggerated but did not altogether deny it. “The story entitled ‘U.S. Secretly Aids Pakistan in Guarding Nuclear Arms’ gives a distorted and exaggerated picture of our efforts to learn from the best practices of other countries with regard to their nuclear safety and export controls,” a Foreign Ministry spokesman.

“Pakistan and the United States have been engaged in mutually agreeable cooperation, which is essentially in the nature of rudimentary training and ideas to strength security and surveillance,” he said, adding that Pakistan, as a responsible nuclear power, has always attached great significance to the security of its strategic assets.  The assets “are completely safe and secure under multi-layered security and Command and Control structures that are fully indigenous,” he said.