Even though experts believe the 72-day conditional ceasefire by Maoists is a “tactical move”, they can’t understand the motive behind the offer.
Some suspect a backroom channel contact between the government and left-wing ultras. “They [Maoists] are definitely not on the defensive. There is something else to it,” said a retired IPS officer who has extensively dealt with the subject. He said there could be moral pressure on Maoists from human rights groups and ordinary people because of the mounting violence. Yet, that alone “doesn’t explain the announcement”, he said.
The officer, like a couple of other sources in the establishment, believes the tough line taken by P Chidambaram — he has demanded unconditional ceasefire — was a bit of posturing, and that secret contacts between the two sides were on.
“It [the offer] does not indicate that the Maoists have changed their mind. It is a pure tactical move, as they are under pressure from security forces and civil society,” said Ajit Doval, former chief of the Intelligence Bureau.
“Peace talks have to be a strategic decision, and the offer must come from the highest political authority,” Doval said. Ganapati is the general secretary of the CPI (Maoist) but the ceasefire offer was made by Kishenji, a senior Maoist leader. This has also prompted some officials to speculate whether there is a division in the group.
In Chhattisgarh, the tide is turning against the Maoists, said a senior security official. In the past six months, only five security personnel have died fighting the ultras, but 40 Maoists have lost their lives. “The ratio has almost reversed,” he said, of the reduced casualty figures of security personnel. But the attack on the police camp in West Bengal, in which 24 personnel were killed, does not make this argument ring true for all Maoist-affected areas.
