Managing ties with a rising China will be one of India’s biggest foreign policy challenges. The two giants will compete for dominance in Asia and jostle for markets and energy sources beyond.
With its growing economic clout, China’s influence will increase. There will be only one Asian giant with its policy of long-term strategic thinking and India’s abysmal lack of strategy.
“China has always worked to a coherent strategic gameplan. Every move China makes is with an eye on the next two to three decades,’’ says analyst Ajai Sahni. “India has none of this. There is no proper sense of power projection. China is growing and it will consolidate its position everywhere. But India is pulling in five directions. China is everywhere: Africa, West Asia, South Asia, Central Asia and Europe. By the next decade, its presence will be solid. Indian policy planners have not given thought to this.’’
India has two options: Either have a pact with another country, like the US, or get ready to take on any challenge from an adventurist China.
But the leaders of India and China are talking of growing together in peace. Though there has been no major progress in talks, the two have ensured peace along the 3,000-km border.
“We will compete in certain spheres, but co-operate on issues affecting developing countries, like climate change and trade,’’ says C Uday Bhaskar, former director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. He says chances of a full-scale war between India and China are remote, unless there is a drastic change in China’s leadership.
Also, China fears an India-US line-up against it. Luckily for China, with Barack Obama in power in Washington and because of the economic meltdown, the US is cosying up to it.
