Congress confident of surviving Tuesday test on cut motions

The Congress-led UPA government is trying to keep its flock together to defeat the cut motions that will be moved by opposition parties on Tuesday.

Despite its dwindling strength in Lok Sabha, the UPA said it would survive the motions but the vote would be “close”.
The BJP and its allies, with 153 MPs, are pinning hopes on support from unlikely quarters to defeat the UPA on the motion against rising prices. Throughout Monday, the BJP’s floor managers met allies to firm up a strategy for the motion. The party also issued a whip to members and requested allies to be present in parliament.

The other cut motion has been moved by a group of 13 ‘non-UPA, non-NDA’ parties, including the four Left parties. This bloc has a combined strength of 88 MPs.

What could make it a close shave for the UPA is a possible clubbing of the motions moved by the NDA and the Left bloc, as this would take the combined opposition strength to 241. The Congress has the assured support of 262 members, though its floor managers pit the coalition’s strength at 274. Going by the Congress’ estimates, they have an advantage of 31 votes against the combined might of the NDA and the Left.

There seem to be two reasons for the Congress’ confidence on surviving the day. The motions coincide with the nationwide bandh against price rise called by the Left Front and the Congress expects that the Left leadership would be busy with the agitation. Added to this is the Left’s insistence that the motion moved by them should not be clubbed with the one moved by the NDA.

Besides, Congress floor managers are looking at the possibility of getting 21 MPs from Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party to stage a walkout before the vote.

Over the last week, the UPA government has made attempts to appease Mayawati. It submitted to the Supreme Court that her controversial public park in Noida wasn’t built in contravention of environment impact assessment (EIA) notification. Moreover, the CBI informed the court that it could consider closure of the disproportionate assets case filed against the Dalit leader.

The BJP, on its part, is maintaining a brave front. Senior leader SS Ahluwalia hinted they would also get the support of Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). Incidentally, both the JMM members in the lower house —Soren and Kameshwar Baitha — are not in Delhi. However, Ahluwalia asserted that the two could make it to the House on Tuesday.

Apart from the vote on the Finance Bill, the UPA has to face other tests on Tuesday. It is to be seen how the coalition’s floor managers contain disruptions over the alleged telephone tapping and the Indian Premier League (IPL).

Lack of coordination
The semblance of unity sought to be projected by the opposition in parliament over the past few days was blown away on Monday. The Left Front continued to demand a probe by a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) into the IPL scandal and the BJP demanded a JPC probe into the phone tapping controversy.

The BJP, Left, AIADMK, JD (U) and SP demanded a statement from the prime minister on the issue. This difference of perception between the two groups has nearly ensured a smooth sailing for the Centre when the cut motions are moved.

The NDA and the 13-party Third Front of the Left Parties and the Samajwadi Party-RJD, were planning their strategies for the motions separately, though they said there will be floor coordination in Lok Sabha.