Congress hopes to win 180 seats

Two days after Rahul Gandhi hinted at a post-poll alliance with Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit on Thursday also took up the refrain, singling him out as a possible ally.

The Congress has begun its post-poll calculations. At the end of the fourth phase of polling in the country, its poll managers had a spring in their step. The confidence stems in large measure from the “rich haul” of seats it expects, in its strongholds of Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and Punjab.  The party’s number crunchers even predict it will win close to 180 seats.

Apart from its own assessment, the party commissioned professional agencies to monitor voting trends and make assessments that it, and even the BJP and Third Front are likely to win. After collating the agencies’ assessment as well as information from its own sources, the Congress believes it will be well ahead of the BJP and is likely to win 171 seats, with the possibility of adding seven, and the BJP languishing at 123 and Third Front at 115.

“We are comfortably placed. There will be a considerable gap between us and the BJP,” said a member of the party’s political management team. 

In addition to its projected tally, Congress managers believe its allies will win 53 seats, taking the United Progressive Alliance’s tally up to 218, but leaving it 52 short of the magic figure of 272 required to form government. Its managers believe that the balance can be made up with support from the Left and new allies. “We are not unduly disturbed by what the Left says, after all they are fighting us in West Bengal. It could change after May 16,” said Verappa Moily, all-India Congress committee general secretary.

Senior Congress leaders are not discounting the possibility of the Left remaining unmoved, in which case the party may decide to sit in the opposition. “There is no way we will agree to replace Manmohan Singh as prime minister. We will sit in the opposition and let the Third Front form the government with BJP support.”

The party is working on the scenario of being given the first shot at government formation, in which case it could attempt to wean away the Janata Dal (United), AIADMK and even the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal.

In private they admit that luring new allies will not be easy for the Congress. 
In almost all states, it’s either the Congress which is the opponent of a regional party and in places where it is not the main force like Tamil Nadu, it is in alliance with a regional party. “There are no easy choices. If we go in for new allies, we will have to dump our old allies. There are all kinds of imponderables to be considered,” said a Congress working committee member.

Apart from overtures made in the past few days, senior party sources confirm formal contacts with potential allies will begin only once results are out. “Everything depends on numbers.  Once the results are out, real politick will come into play. Things will move double quick,” said a leader likely to be involved in the exercise.