A pre-poll survey by Star News and Nielsen predicts that the Congress-led United Progressive alliance (UPA) will walk away with 257 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats in next month’s general election, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will have to be content with 184.
The UPA total includes the projections for RJD, LJP and SP. The three parties have failed to reach a pre-poll agreement with the Congress but have been clubbed with the UPA, considering the probability of a post-poll alliance between them. Without the three, the UPA score stands at 210.
According to the survey, the Congress will emerge as the single-largest party with 144 seats against the BJP’s 137. Other projections are:
UP: Samajwadi Party will get 30 seats, six less than 2004, while BSP will get just two seats more than last election’s 19.
Maharashtra: Sharad Pawar’s NCP is tipped to get 13 seats, one more than the Shiv Sena. The NCP-Cong-RPI combine will bag a total of 26 against the Sena-BJP’s 22.
Bihar: The survey predicts RJD to be the ultimate loser with Lalu, Paswan and Congress not reaching an alliance. The RJD is tipped to get only 11 seats against the 24 it won the last time. Ramvilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party is tipped to increase its tally from four to six. NDA ally JD(U) will double its figure from eight to 16 in the 15th Lok Sabha.
Orissa: The divorce will benefit the BJP, not the BJD, whose last tally of 11 is expected to come down to nine.
Tamil Nadu: J Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK, which drew a blank in the last election, still trails its main rival DMK. Jaya’s party will get nine, while Karunanidhi’s 24.
Andhra Pradesh: Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party is predicted to get 14 seats compared to five in the last elections, but is still behind Congress’s 22.
