The threat of a possible fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic looms large as the cases of infection is rising across the globe. Omicron subvariant BA.2 has caused a huge surge in cases across many European countries and Asian countries like China and South Korea.
However, Indian experts are not worried about it triggering another wave in the country right away. Their reasons for not worrying includes boosted immunity from the third wave that occurred between December 2021 and February 2022 and high vaccination coverage across the country including booster doses.
At the end of February, researchers had suggested in an yet-to-be-peer-reviewed study that India could see cases rise yet again in mid to late June this year. The researchers suggested that the Covid 4th wave could last for about four months. However, they said the severity or extent of infections would depend on additional factors like the variant type and the level of immunity due to vaccination.
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Countries like New Zealand, South Korea, Germany and Austria have recorded their highest single-day infection counts this month. But that has not deterred India from resuming regular overseas flight. India has also decided to lift containment restrictions, except facial masks and social distancing, this month.
Last week, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) had announced that all existing Covid-19 restrictions will be removed on March 31. Many experts have also suggested that while a fourth wave was 'imminent', it would not occur just yet in India.
Maharashtra, which has been the worst affected state during earlier waves is already been put on alert and has notified local officials urging caution and additional measures.
Is India prepared to tackle Covid 4th wave?
Dr VK Paul, Member, NITI Aayog, recently stated that India is prepared for another possible wave as a large section of the population is both naturally immunised as well as received both doses of the Covid-19 vaccines.
Eminent Virologist and Former Professor, Christian Medical College (CMC) Vellore Dr T Jacob John predicted that the chances of Covid 4th wave are low unless another variant erupts. "There is no scientific, epidemiological reason to predict a fourth Covid-19 wave but nobody can predict that it will not happen. I can say the probability is extremely low but it is important to be vigilant and cautious," said Dr John.
Dr Subhash Salunkhe, former state director general of health services and Maharashtra government's technical adviser said, "We cannot lower our guard as the fourth wave is imminent in India like it has happened in the rest of the world." "The only thing that is unknown about the fourth wave is when exactly will it occur and how severe will it be," he added.
