Decoded: The real reasons Modi-Shah picked Yogi Adityanath to be UP CM

The nuclear button has been pressed and it is time for ‘Little Boy’ to do its work. The decision to appoint Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh was almost met with similar kind of anxiety, trepidation, uncertainty about what lies in the future among a large section of the media and civil society. Yogi’s elevation is unlikely to be music for large section of Muslims in Uttar Pradesh, who were already bracing for a BJP government. The potential fallouts of appointing a religious hardliner as the UP Chief Minister are many. It can erode PM Modi's slogan of 'Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas', can alienate the fence-sitters and take the spotlight away from government's developmental agenda. It can negatively affect BJP's perception in urban clusters across the country. Yet, Modi and Shah went for this costly gamble where they could have gone for an unassuming ground worker turned leader, a model successfully used in other states. What explains this choice of a deeply polarising figure like Adityanath?  Let’s look at them.

1. The mandate is for Hindutva

While the BJP may have boasted that people had voted overwhelmingly for their development agenda and many analysts also concurred with them, Adityanath’s elevation shows the saffron party doesn’t actually believe their own rhetoric. Adityanath’s victory is the natural corollary of the Shamshan-Kabaristaan brand of politics started by PM Modi, of borderline communal message espoused by BJP IT cells, of blowout victory in Western Uttar Pradesh where the communal faultlines are stark. Adityanath was one of the major campaigners for BJP in this election, crisscrossing the state with thinly veiled rhetoric. Adityanath’s selection was not a surprise, it was the writing on the wall, but many had ignored it conveniently. It’s fair to say if he wasn’t a hardliner, he would have been a frontrunner from day one. It’s just that at a time Prime Minister Narendra Modi is looking to form a new India, such an appointment sticks out like sore thumb. A classic case of blow hot, blow cold Hindutva from the ruling party.

2. BJP is concerned about Mahagathbandhan

BJP‘s vote share in Uttar Pradesh was close to 40%, but the combined share of Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was almost 52%. Thus, if the opposition unites in Uttar Pradesh, like in Bihar, the saffron party may find it tough to repeat its stunning performance from 2014 general elections. The only way to circumvent that united vote bank is by weaning away part of the SP and BSP’s core electorate. BJP will hope that a solid developmental agenda laced with Hindutva will keep anti-incumbency at bay and help in further consolidating the Hindu vote bank. In the Hindi heartland, 2019 may well be a face-off between Hindutva and ‘secularism’. And Yogi’s appointment is a preemptive strike to not get caught unaware. When the opposition is trying to consolidate, it's only fair that Modi will be also look to do the same. It's sad that he believes that  only development can't deliver the votes needed to thwart a potential mega-alliance. 

3. BJP isn’t optimistic about  getting Muslim votes in the near future

A theory has been floated that a section of the Muslim community voted for BJP. Although there is no definitive way to know this, the party’s heavy strike rate in constituencies with significant Muslim population suggests there may be inkling of truth in it. But Adityanath’s elevation means BJP doesn’t believe that a critical mass of Muslims will be supporting them anytime soon. They could have gone for a middle-of-the-road candidate and looked to garner goodwill with development schemes targeted at the minority section. But the party has consciously stayed away from that track. It has given the top prize to a Yogi, a recognition of the backing the party has got from Mahants and seers for decades. They stood firmly behind BJP even when the party was at an-all time low. It is also a message to the party’s core base. There has been resentment from the hardline base that Narendra Modi government has not exactly pursued a Hindutva agenda. The continuation of ‘anti-Hindu’ schemes like RTE and Hajj subsidy has been cause of much disquiet from the ideological right. While the Modi government has struck a balance, not pandering to the fringe in governance, Yogi’s selection is certainly to placate them. Ram Mandir may be still some time ahead in the future, but at least their representative will be in-charge of state proceedings.

4. Shah-Modi confident enough to promote an independent leader

Yogi Adityanath has a mind of his own and is unlikely to be playing by the Shah-Modi playbook at all time. While that is rife with danger, BJP central leadership will hope that the charismatic Yogi will try his best to get a grip on the poor law and order condition in Uttar Pradesh. For all his blitzkrieg, Yogi has been a serious Parliamentarian. In the 16th LokSabha, his attendance is 77% (slightly below average) but in parameters of number of questions asked (284), debated (56) and private bills moved (3), it is well above average. Known as a go-getter in Eastern UP, in last three years ​Adityanath has ensured that an AIIMS is built in Gorakhpur and a closed fertiliser plant is revived. His Lok Sabha debating record is a mix of pursuing different Hindutva agenda alongside that of development. Shah-Modi will hope that Adityanath finds the right balance as UP CM too, so that BJP can continue to be the dominant party in India’s most populous state. Yogi comes with a lot of baggage, but who better than BJP's top duo to know that such stigma can get mellowed with time, if a leader sticks to his agenda. While it would appear he is unpopular with Muslims outside his stronghold of Gorakhpur, he is someone whose star power cuts across different Hindu castes. This plays with BJP's attempt to unify Hindu votes under one saffron umbrella, which would negate any grand alliance in the offing. Overall, Shah-Modi should be credited for not travelling the beaten path of merely imposing a proxy candidate as CM.  Adityanath so far on day one has made all the right noises. He has promised to work for all, and adhere by Modi's 'sabka saath, sabka vikas policy'. He is looking to clamp down on anti-social elements. As per pre-election promise, crackdown on slaughter houses have also begun. 

The challenge will come if and when Adityanath goes way off the script. Can he be tamed? Or will it come back as a fatal boomerang? All bets are off. Welcome to the new normal, where virulent Hindutva takes centre-stage.