DNA Exclusive: Once Nitish Kumar’s go-to man, RCP Singh now left out in the cold; what options is he left with?

First a bureaucrat in UP cadre, then a politician and finally a Union minister, the political career of Ram Chandra Prasad Singh, or RCP Singh, took a meteoric rise after he came in proximity with JD(U) president and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.  

However, for RCP, who was once Nitish Kumar’s closest confidant and seen as his successor, the odyssey now seems to be coming down the ladder. While the bureaucrat-turned-politician is still part of the JD(U), he is neither a Union minister now, nor a Rajya Sabha member or even the party president. 

RCP Singh ran from pillar to post to get a third Rajya Sabha term and even tried to crack a deal with the BJP after being overlooked by the JD(U), but was spurned by both the coalition partners. 

Political pundits believe that RCP Singh paid the price of showing too much closeness with the BJP and going against the party’s stance on the proposed National Register for Citizens and special status for Bihar. 

But from being the closest to an adversary did not happen in a day. RCP started losing Nitish’s trust in July 2021 after he pushed for a central berth during the cabinet expansion of the Narendra Modi government.

After its thumping Lok Sabha victory in 2019, the BJP insisted that all allies should settle for a “token representation”. While Nitish Kumar demanded two Cabinet berths for RCP and Kalan Singh, the BJP offered just one and the JD(U) stayed out. 

However, the loss of trusted allies like Shiv Sena in recent past and the realisation that in the caste-dominated politics of Bihar, BJP cannot do without Nitish Kumar, forced BJP to finally give Singh and the JD(U) their honourable due. 

By the time of Cabinet expansion in July 2021, RCP was in direct touch with the BJP leadership and his swearing in as Union steel minister raised several eyebrows within the party. A section of JD(U) accused him of nominating himself to the BJP without taking Nitish’s final consent.

While Nitish never spoke about it, political experts feel that RCP paid the price with getting denied a third term in the Parliament’s Upper House.  

Coming in Nitish’s ‘bad books’

RCP, thus, entered the long list of leaders who were shown exit doors after coming into Nitish Kumar’s ‘bad books’. George Fernandes, Digvijay Singh and Sharad Yadav are to name a few among them. 

Whether or not RCP’s exit from the Union Cabinet was a collateral damage caused by strained relations between the BJP and JD(U), the former bureaucrat doesn’t seem to be left with many choices for a political revitalisation. 

Once seen as Nitish Kumar’s No. 2 and appointed as party’s national president just two years ago, Singh is now left deserted out in the cold and his way back to regaining the same stature in the JD(U) seems to be a tough one. 

After being denied Rajya Sabha ticket — seen as a result of his fallout with Nitish — and having resigned from the Union Cabinet, all eyes are on RCP’s next move. Will he choose to remain with the JD(U) as a toothless tiger, or will he rebel against Nitish Kumar, or will he jump ship to the BJP, with whom he has maintained proximity lately?

Is it endgame RCP Singh?

Speaking to DNA India, political commentator Amitabh Tiwari opined that RCP is not left with many options and that his political career is “nearing its end”.      

“For RCP Singh, his political career is nearing its end unless the BJP plans to induct him, only to make its rift with the JD(U) public. Now that Nitish has decided to snub him, Singh is only left with the option of going with the BJP,” Tiwari told DNA India.

“While the BJP may think of inducting Singh, it will have to repeat a Maharashtra by getting almost the entire JD(U) on its side to retain power in the state since the majority mark there is 122 and the ruling NDA alliance is not much above it with 125 MLAs,” he added. 

Hobson’s choice for RCP

Tiwari said that RCP Singh, who resigned as Union Minister of Steel recently, can only wait either for the BJP to induct him or hope for the JD(U) to have a fallout with the BJP and get weaker, or Nitish to realign with his friends-turned-foe Yadavs.  

However, for the BJP, getting RCP on board doesn’t seem to be in its plans as the party still doesn’t hold a significant vote bank of its own to secure a simple majority in Bihar. This is the reason why the BJP is treading cautiously and is likely to keep Nitish Kumar in good humour until it politically weakens the JDU enough or finds an alternative. 

Tiwari opines that the BJP would not risk angering the JDU by accepting RCP Singh into its fold, particularly since the presidential election is around the corner. 

The option of remaining with the JD(U) and hoping to regain his lost control is also unlikely given that not only Kumar but JD(U) national president Rajiv Ranjan Singh, or Lalan Singh, and current JD(U) parliamentary board chairperson Upendra Kushwaha e old rivals who would like to keep him marginalised in the party. 

While Kushwaha is sensing an opportunity to consolidate his position in the party, Lalan Singh will also look forward to fulfil his dream as he could not become a Union minister in 2019. 

Singh, however, may draw some hope from the fact that in the past, Kumar has given back the position to those leaders who had fallen out with him. Both Lalan Singh and Kushwaha had quit the party after their run-ins with the JD(U) chief but managed to return to his good books and regain their positions at the top of the party hierarchy. 

Some believe that RCP could do a Jitan Ram mango on his political mentor. After the JD(U) faced a debacle in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish Kumar quit as the CM and placed Manjhi in his place. Later, when Kumar asked Manjhi to step down, he refused. Manjhi, however, failed to win a vote of confidence despite BJP’s support and eventually left the JD(U) to float his own party. 

However, what needs to be noted is that RCP Singh is not Jitan Ram Manjhi. Even if he could manage to split the JD(U), it will be difficult for him to bring enough party members on his side.