DNA Exclusive: Why a splintered opposition comes as 'insurance policy' for Narendra Modi in 2024?

Ever since the Narendra Modi-powered BJP rose to power at the Centre in 2014, the opposition has been making all possible attempts to come under one umbrella, but all in vain. The regional satraps, who tried to cobble a united front, were well aware of the fact that taking on the BJP separately was apparently an unobtainable task. 

Now with the next Lok Sabha elections less than two years away, the attempts of a united opposition front are still underway, with the only difference that the number of regional power-holders eyeing the national arena has increased by two -- Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal. 

These names are in addition to several others like Mamata Banerjee, KCR, M K Stalin and Sharad Pawar (even if we don’t count Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav). 

An undeniable fact here is that such attempts to bring the opposition together, even tried by the country’s main opposition party Congress, have failed, which experts believe have been roadblocked by the national ambitions of these regional satraps -- everyone eyes the untold dream of becoming the prime minister. 

Ever since Nitish Kumar rejoined the Mahagathbandhan fold in his latest flip-flop, he has been calling for a united opposition, asserting that he was not a PM contender in the 2024 run-up. But experts believe otherwise; they think that more than the differences with the BJP, it was Kumar’s national ambitions, which seemed more achievable with the grand alliance than with the saffron party itself, that prompted the move quit the NDA. 

On the other hand, Arvind Kejriwal seems to be aware of the already ‘crowded’ opposition, and has therefore taken a different route. Not just an unconventional political approach, the Aam aadmi Party chief pitched himself against Modi with his announcement of ‘Make India Number 1’ calling card earlier this month. 

His approach is quite evident -- making his party stand directly against the BJP by replacing Congress as the prime national opposition party. This is clear from the fact that he is strategically contesting polls in states where the BJP and Congress are in a bipolar contest. 

Aware of the fact that it will be difficult to outdo the BJP in caste politics and Hindutva, Kejriwal has taken the ‘freebies’ way and it has actually worked for him so far. After AAP’s Punjab victory, his party apparently stands at the same position as the Congress, with both parties ruling two states on their own. 

Opposition unity a ‘myth’? 

Speaking to DNA India, political commentator Amitabh Tiwari opines that addition of new names to the list of PM aspirants will only increase the headache of the opposition, as it is only going to complicate the process of picking up one prime ministerial face. 

“Recent actions of AAP and Congress suggest that they understand the complications (united opposition is a myth) and may be inclined to go solo in the elections. Split of votes could help the BJP in 2024,” Tiwari says. 

The opposition has already seen the result of fighting divided and without a prime ministerial face in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP emerged stronger than 2014 and left the Congress-led opposition devastated. This not just ended here and the impact was further visible in this year’s assembly polls in five states, where the BJP retained four of them. 

Another factor to be taken into account is these leaders’ connect with the masses. While Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal certainly have shown the potential to connect with the masses, forming a homogeneous image across states, with diverse culture, demography, caste alignment and social combinations, is a Herculean task, which Narendra Modi has mastered with his pro-poor representation.

Mamata Banerjee’s national ambitions, who eyes to expand his party beyond West Bengal, have taken a serious hit amid his ministers’ alleged involvements in several scams. Language barrier is another factor which roadblocks her from connecting with Hindi-speaking population in the northern and central belt. 

While these regional satraps have managed to keep the BJP in check in their states, things are a lot different for the voter when he votes to being a party in power at the Centre. The voter is aware of all, whether Kumar’s flip-flops for power or Kejriwal’s ‘freebie’ tactic or Banerjee’s PM dream. 

Banerjee’s growing differences with the Congress are also expected to roadblock the efforts to cobble a united front, despite the fact that she has announced to fight the 2024 Lok Sabha polls hands in hands with Kumar and Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren. 

Possibility of 1989-like episode?

Rasheed Kidwai, renowned journalist and author of ‘24 Akbar Road’, opines that a divided opposition is the “best insurance policy for Mr Narendra Modi and the BJP”. He cited the example of 1980s when Janata Party managed to cobble an alliance against the Indira Gandhi-led Congress, but failed to defeat it. 

“You cannot just unite the opposition for the sake of it, it doesn’t work. The same thing happened against Indira Gandhi, when the Janta Party came, it look good, but then there was the Right and the Left and all kinds of divisions and contradictions which led to the downfall of Morarji Desai, and the Janta Party experience failed,” Kidwai said. 

“All these fronts and combinations where you have a diverse opposition, it tends to have a lot of internal contradictions and that’s why it acts as an insurance policy for the government,” he added. 

He, however, cautioned that a ‘friendless’ BJP, after regional powers like Shiromani Akali Dal and Janata Dal (United) having quit the NDA, may have a tough road in 2024 and if the saffron party “gets 200 seats instead of 300, they will have a problem in hand”. 

On the other hand, political expert Nilanjan Mukhopadhyaya believes that politics is all about a “series of dramatic events which are completely unforeseen”, and does not rule out the possibility of a 1987-like episode when the BJP-Janata Dal defeated a dominating force like the Congress. 

“The road to Patna this time is the road which every political party, barring the BJP, has joined - you have the left, you have the Congress and you have the two oldest factions of the Janata Parivar. Why should we not say that this road is going to go beyond Patna also,” says Mukhopadhyay. 

Odds favouring BJP

Summing it up, barring a few losses, the BJP’s winning streak doesn’t appear to be reversing. The party retained four out of five states in the Assembly polls earlier this year which included the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh. 

In his address after the poll victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggested that the trends confirms the BJP victory in 2024, and he doesn’t seem to be going wrong with his forecast.  

The Congress is still reeling under leadership crisis which has now aggravated with the existential crisis  and infighting within its state units. While the country’s oldest party claims to have a pan-India presence, the fact is that it has shrunk to be almost a regional party. 

Arvind Kejriwal’ AAP and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress will probably vie for the opposition leadership.

The regional parties failed to perform in the Assembly polls earlier this year. Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party improved its tally but was nowhere close to snatching power from the BJP. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party lost its turf with Dalits moving away from her. Mamata’s Trinamool Congress might be a dominating force in West Bengal, but its experiment failed out of state as it lost Goa. 

Above all this, the Opposition unity is eluding because of the ego clashes of the regional leaders. The first and foremost question is who will lead the Opposition among all these regional satraps who have been vying for national arena for so long?