Exit Poll Analysis: BJP to keep Gujarat, tough competition in Himachal; AAP to rule the roost in MCD polls

Exit polls on Monday predicted a landslide victory for the BJP in Gujarat while most of them gave an edge to it in Himachal Pradesh, indicating re-election of the ruling party in both states. The BJP, however, may face a setback in Delhi as exit polls have predicted a thumping victory for the Aam Aadmi Party, which will end the former’s 15-year-rule in the powerful civic body. 

However, exit polls often go wrong and the fate for the three parties -- the BJP, the Congress and AAP -- will be decided on December 7-8. The counting of votes for MCD polls will be taken up on December 7 while that of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will be done on December 8. 

But if these exit polls turn out right, it will come as a big boost to the BJP, which will not only retain power for a record seventh term in Gujarat, where it has been in power since 1995, but also change the ‘riwaaz’ (trend) of alternate governments in Himachal Pradesh. 

Also, victories in these two states will set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the upcoming Assembly elections next year in states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. 

For the AAP, a victory in MCD polls might come as a booster, but the exit poll predictions of it failing to make an impact in Gujarat and Himachal suggest that the Arvind Kejriwal’s party still has a long way to go to fulfil its national ambitions. 

Here is an analysis of the exit polls for Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls and also for the MCD elections: 

Gujarat

Most exit polls predicted a big mandate for the BJP in Gujarat in the range of 117-148 seats in the 182-member assembly, while the Congress was predicted to bag seats in the range of 30-51 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party was projected to bag anything between three and 13 seats. The majority mark in Gujarat is 92.

According to the News X-Jan Ki Baat exit poll on Gujarat elections, the BJP was likely to get 117-140 seats, Congress-NCP 34-51, AAP 6-13 and others 1-2. Republic TV P-MARQ predicted 128-148 seats for the BJP, 30-42 for the Congress-NCP, AAP 2-10 and others 0-3. TV9 Gujarati forecast that the BJP would get 125-130 seats, Congress-NCP 40-50, AAP 3-5 and others 3-7.

Furthermore, an IANS analysis of ABP-CVoter Exit Poll shows that the BJP is poised to make big gains in the Kutch-Saurashtra region, while the Congress is projected to lose the battle where it had an upper hand in the 2017 elections.

In the Kutch-Saurashtra region, the BJP is projected to win 40 out of the 54 seats, marking a gain of 17 seats as compared to the 23 seats it had won in 2017, the survey findings showed. However, its vote share is projected to dip from 45.9 per cent in 2017 to 43 per cent this time.

The Congress is projected to win 10 seats, down by 20 from the 30 seats it had won in the Kutch-Saurashtra region in 2017. Interestingly, debutant AAP is projected to win five seats in the region with a vote share of 17.1 per cent, damaging Congress’ prospects.

The highlight of Gujarat polls was the entry of AAP, but an aggregate of exit polls has predicted it may not cross over 10-15 seats in the 182-seat state assembly. 

The BJP bagged 115 seats in the 2012 Gujarat Assembly polls, and the seat tally came down to 99 in the 2017 elections because of a spirited campaign by the Congress and the quota stir by the Patidar community. The Grand Old Party had then won 77 seats. 

The exit poll figures show that the BJP is set to better its 2017 numbers. And the AAP will open its account in a small but significant way.

In case the results on December 8 fall in line with the exit polls, it will prove that the ‘Brand Modi’ remains unaffected in the prime minister’s home state, which has helped the BJP defy the anti-incumbency factor. 

P-Marq - BJP(128-148), Congress (30-42), AAP (2-10), Others(0-3)
ETG - BJP (131), Congress (41), AAP (6), Others (4)
Jan Ki Baat - BJP (117-140), Congress (34-51), AAP (6-13), Others (1-2)
TV9 - BJP (125-130), Congress (40-50), AAP (3-5), Others (3-7)
BARC - BJP(110-125), Congress (45-60), AAP (1-5), Others (0-4)
Today's Chanakya - BJP (150), Congress (19), AAP (11), Others (02)
Axis My India - BJP (129-151), Congress (16-30), AAP (9-21), Others (2-6)

Himachal Pradesh

The exit polls have predicted a dead heat in Himachal Pradesh where most pollsters gave an edge to the ruling party over the Congress. In Himachal Pradesh, the exit polls projected a range of 24-41 seats for the BJP and 24-40 seats for the Congress. The majority mark is 35 seats.

Aaj Tak-Axis My India predicted a close contest between the Congress and the BJP. It said the BJP would get 24-34 seats and the Congress 30-40 seats. News 24-Today's Chanakya also pointed to a cliffhanger in Himachal Pradesh, predicting 33 seats for both the BJP and the Congress with a margin of plus-minus seven seats for both.

While ABP News C-Voter said the BJP was likely to get 33-41 seats and Congress 24-32, India TV predicted that the BJP would bag 35-40 seats, Congress 26-31 and AAP zero. News X-Jan Ki Baat survey said the BJP was likely to get 32-40 seats in the hill state, Congress 27-34 and AAP zero.

While Republic TV P-MARQ predicted that the BJP would get 34-39, Congress 28-33 and AAP 0-1, the Times Now-ETG said the average seats BJP was likely to get was 38 and the Congress 28.

In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress put up a spirited challenge while it was a lacklustre show in Gujarat for the Grand Old Party. And this is evident from the exit poll predictions with the Congress likely to make significant gains in the hill state. 

The incumbent government in Himachal is usually voted out during Assembly elections. But it doesn’t seem to be the case this time since several pollsters have given the ruling party an edge over the Congress.

P-Marq - BJP(34-39), Congress (28-33), AAP (0-1), Others(1-4)
News-X - BJP (32-40), Congress (27-40), AAP (0), Others (1-2)
BARC - BJP(35-40), Congress (20-25), AAP (0-3), Others (1-5)
ETG - BJP (38), Congress (28), AAP (0), Others (2)
Jan Ki Baat - BJP (32-40), Congress (27-34), AAP (0), Others (1-2)
Axis My India - BJP (24-34), Congress (30-40), AAP (0), Others (4-8)

MCD Elections

The exit polls have predicted a clear win for the Aam Aadmi Party in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) polls and an end to the BJP's 15-year rule at the civic body. The results for the MCD polls will be declared after counting of votes on December 7.

The Aaj Tak-Axis My India survey showed the AAP was going to bag 149-171 municipal wards, while the BJP will win 69-91 wards. The survey gave 3-7 wards to the Congress and 5-9 to others.

The AAP is predicted to win 146-156 wards in the Times Now-ETG survey which gave 84-94 wards to the BJP and, 6-10 to the Congress and up to four to others.

The News X exit poll gave the Aam Aadmi Party 150-175 wards and the BJP 70-92, while the Congress may win 4-7 municipal wards.

The BJP that has been ruling the civic bodies since 2007 and had won 181 of the total 270 municipal wards in the 2017 civic body polls, trouncing the AAP and the Congress. The AAP won 48 wards and the Congress 30.

This is the first civic election after the fresh delimitation exercise, and the poll was held days after the first phase of the Gujarat assembly elections, and a day ahead of its second phase.

This was also the first civic polls held in the national capital after the February 2020 riots in Delhi, and according to data shared by officials, 3,360 booths, spanning 493 locations, were identified in critical or sensitive categories.

There were 272 wards in Delhi and three corporations -- NDMC, SDMC and EDMC -- in Delhi from 2012-2022, before being reunified into an MCD that had formally come into existence on May 22. The erstwhile MCD, established in 1958, was trifurcated in 2012 during Sheila Dikshit's tenure as the chief minister.

A win for the AAP here will come as a big boost to Arvind Kejriwal's national ambitions for his party as he tends to take a side road from the rest of the opposition and eyes emerging as a third front. The Punjab victory earlier this year had already boosted its prospects following which the party plans to strategically contest elections in states which have been witnessing bipolar contests between the BJP and the Congress.