Guj BJP expects 17-20 seats

Even as May 16 nears, Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi and his close aides have prepared a post-election assessment report, focusing on the state as well as the country, on the likely gains the BJP will make in the 15th Lok Sabha elections. In the last elections, in 2004, the party claimed 14 seats in Gujarat, while the Congress took 12.

A senior minister close to Modi, on the condition on anonymity, said that the post-election assessment suggested that the BJP will win a minimum of 17 seats and a maximum of 20 in Gujarat, while the Congress will win nine and six in each case.

"We expect major gains in Saurashtra. We are sure of winning the Jamnagar, Amreli and Junagadh seats, which the Congress took last time. We will also retain other Saurashtra seats, including Porbandar," the minister said. "We expect to get Kheda, Sabarkantha and Banaskantha, with have been with the Congress. The Congress may win seats like Dahod and Surendranagar."

At the national level, a confidant of the chief minister said, the BJP will win a maximum of 166 seats and a minimum of 144. The Congress may win a maximum of 177 and a minimum of 133 seats, he said.

But the BJP's allies - the JD(S), SS, AGP, AD, JD(U) and TRS - and possible allies - the AIADMK, BJD and TDP - will win more seats than allies of the Congress, enabling the NDA to form the government at the Centre, the BJP analysis said.

However, certain factors were ignored in this analysis, such as the role of the Left parties, BSP, SP, LJP and RJD. It also did not give much importance to Third Front parties, which may choose the Congress over the BJP at the last moment.

In either case, the Congress-led UPA will form the government, by a slightly better margin, the BJP analysis stated. In 2004, the Congress won 148 seats, and the BJP, 110.

In states like Uttar Pradesh, the BJP analysis expected a minimum of 18 seats and a maximum of 23, with the expectations for the Congress are the same. The BSP may win a maximum of 30 and minimum of 20 seats there.

In Maharashtra, the BJP expects to win 18 seats, while it expects the Shiv Sena to take 16 and the Congress, only eight.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress may win a minimum of 20 and maximum of 29 seats, while the TDP, an old ally of the BJP, may win a maximum of 16 seats. In West Bengal, the CPM may win a maximum of 30 and a minimum of 23 seats, while the Trinamool Congress and Congress may win a maximum of 12 and nine seats, respectively.

The BJP expects a minimum of 11 and a maximum of 12 seats in Bihar, with the JD(U) taking a minimum of 16 and maximum of 18; the RJD may win a maximum of 10 seats. The AIADMK is expected to take a minimum of 25 seats and maximum of 29 in Tamil Nadu, while the DMK will win six to 10 seats.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP expects a major share, winning a minimum of 23 and maximum of 25 seats, while it expects the Congress to take four to six seats only.