How polarisation of non-Jat votes brought BJP to shores in Haryana

The Bharatiya Janata Party's journey in Haryana from four seats in 2009 to 47 in the 2014 assembly elections is a tale of caution, dedication, patience and opportunity.

Barely a year ago, even staunch BJP supporters or over-optimistic BJP leaders wouldn't have dared to hope for such a show. But a party which doesn't even have offices at majority of blocks in the state got such a mandate only due to the flawless strategy executed by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his trusted aide Amit Shah.

If the polarisation of Hindu votes fetched the BJP more than 70 seats in Uttar Pradesh during the Lok Sabha elections, the polarisation of non-Jat votes brought the BJP to this magical figure of 47 in Haryana, where it does not need the support of any of the parties to form the government. 

Out of the total electorate, nearly 25 % votes belongs to Jats, who are the most powerful community in Haryana.

The remaining 75 % are non-Jats, which include nearly 24 % OBCs, 30 % upper caste Brahmins, Baniyas and Punjabi voters and 21 % Dalits. The OBCs electorate comprises of Ahirs Yadavs from South Haryana, a region from where majority seats have gone to BJP. The Dalits have always been marginalized or got stuck between Congress or the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) which were supported by different Jat powerhouses.

But this time, after getting seven out of 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, the BJP became a force to reckon with, and this is where master strategist Amit Shah in Haryana put his best foot forward. 

The Jat votes became divided in the conventional form between the INLD and Congress whereas the non-Jat votes got unified against the Congress and the INLD, thus making BJP the only viable option to be elected.

In fact, in order to further divide the Jat vote, the BJP gave tickets to 27 Jats, which is more than any other party. This step fetched the BJP 22 % of Jat votes, which further reduced the share of votes for other parties, especially the INLD.

Both INLD and Congress got seats less than 20.

All this has now lead Haryana to most likely get a non-Jat chief minister after a long time. So far, only Bhajan Lal had managed to become a potential non-Jat option of the voters, but the BJP has certainly bypassed his son Kuldeep Bishnoi who also had aspired to become the chief minister some day.

Now let's see the picture on the ground and analyse what really happened.

Rohtak, Jhajjar and Sonepat were considered to be Congress bastions and out of the total of 14 seats, it expected to win at least 12. But Congress only managed to win 9, which excludes seat of Rohtak city where Congress lost. Remaining five seats were claimed by BJP. Similarly Hisar and Jind were conventionally INLD bastions as it had majority of Jats voters who favoured the Devi Lal family. But they have shown contrary results leading BJP to emerge victorious.

Dushyant Chautala, the Chautala scion who won Hisar Lok Sabha seat earlier this year by defeating Kuldeep Bishnoi, lost to BJP candidate Prem Lata Singh, the wife of former Congress leader Chaudhary Birender Singh. BJP candidate Abhimanyu Singh is the only Jat candidate who won from Hisar district which had a Jat majority. 

Similarly in South Haryana aka Ahirwals, BJP won 15 seats out of 24. South Haryana doesn't have a big Jat population and most constituencies are under a big influence of Yadavs who are led by Rao Inderjeet Singh, union minister and royalty of Rewari. Congress candidates like Rao Daan Singh and Captain Ajay Yadav had never lost elections until now.

As far as Jat votes are concerned, INLD has received majority of the Jat votes with more than 41 % votes. Congress came second with around 30 % of Jat votes. BJP too has received 22 % of total Jat votes which further helped it in a better showing in Jat dominated districts.