The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that India's winter from December 2023 to February 2024 will be warmer than normal. It stated that the intensity and the frequency of cold waves will be lower than usual in most parts of north, northwest, central, east and north-east India.
Releasing the prediction for the season on Friday, IMD’s director general, M Mohapatra, said that above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, and above-normal maximum temperatures are expected over most regions except some areas in central and northwest India.
“Just like the forecast for November, the upcoming month and the winter season in totality this season is expected to be warmer than usual,” Mohapatra said. “The monthly maximum temperatures for December are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country except some areas of central India and north India where normal maximum temperatures are likely,” he added.
Scientists mentioned that below-normal western disturbances, which push colder winds from the snowclad regions to parts of northwest and central India thereby lowering the temperature, are the main reason for warmer temperatures so far, which is also expected to persist through the season.
In 2022, the Met Department had predicted warmer than normal winters and maximum and minimum temperatures in most areas of the country remained slightly higher.
Maximum parts of the country over the last few months have witnessed above-normal temperatures. The Met Department data reveals that India recorded the third-highest maximum and minimum temperatures for November since 1901, when IMD began recording data.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet, also confirmed the prediction of a milder winter.
“We are currently seeing lower than normal western disturbances, this does not just mean less rain spells but also the winds that bring cold winds from the snowfall affected states is also not reaching this side. The cyclonic storm is also blocking the winds from the snowfall impacted states and this is also keeping the minimum temperatures higher than normal,” he said.
The IMD also gave a detailed rainfall forecast.
“Above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the northwest, adjoining areas of central and east India, and some areas of extreme south peninsular India. Below normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the northeast India, north peninsular India, and adjoining areas of central India,” the prediction stated.
