Maharashtra floor test explained in numbers: How many Shiv Sena MLAs BJP needs to form government?

Uddhav Thackeray resigned as the Maharashtra Chief Minister on Wednesday night, days after Shiv Sena MLAs' revolt. He submitted his resignation to Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari. Devendra Fadnavis will meet the rebels' leader Eknath Shinde today to decide the future course of action, said state BJP chief Chandrakant Patil. The rebel MLAs had reached Goa yesterday. They were supposed to arrive in Mumbai today but Patil has urged them to stay put till the swearing in ceremony. Meanwhile, Maharashtra BJP leader Girish Mahajan said his party has the support of 170 MLAs. "We have the support of 170 MLAs. We can comfortably face a floor test whenever we are asked to prove majority."

 If the BJP wants to form a government on its own, it would take the support of all the rebel MLAs. It would then have to take a floor test inside the Maharashtra Assembly. How can BJP form a government and ace the floor test? Here are the possible scenarios. 

Eknath Shinde reportedly has the support of 40 Shiv Sena MLAs and around 10 Independents. The half-way mark in the 288-strong Shiv Sena is 144. The BJP currently has 105 MLAs in the Maharashtra MLAs. Hence, the party needs the support of just 35 MLAs. If the 50 MLAs whose support Shinde claims vote for the BJP, the future government will have a comfortable majority of 155 MLAs. 

How will the BJP form a government? The Maharashtra governor will invite the BJP, which is the single-largest party, to stake claim for the formation of government in the state. After they give letters of support to the government, they will be called to name a chief minister. Days after the swearing in ceremony, they will have to take a floor test proving majority on the floor of the house. 

The rebel MLAs have three options. They can merge with the BJP to avoid the anti-defection law, they can vote for the BJP without merging and face disqualification, they can fight a legal battle for the right to be called the real Shiv Sena. They can also negotiate for prominent ministries in the government. Most likely Devendra Fadnavis will be the next chief minister.