Modi’s new mask is working,but...

The BJP strongman is all set to return to power, though with fewer seats

MUMBAI: Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi should prepare himself for another stint in office. 2007 is quite unlike 2002 and in these five years, Modi has undergone a self-transformation, and the people of Gujarat are buying the new Modi.

The electorate, it seems, is happy to let Godhra and the communal riots fade from the scene.

In 2002, when Modi kick-started his campaign in Rajkot, he unsheathed a sword and then gave a speech about Gujarati asmita and Hindu pride.

In 2007, at the same spot in Rajkot, Modi began his campaign with no overt aggression and talked about Gujarat’s development and how it can compete with China.

A DNA-IMRS opinion poll conducted from October 30 to November 4, just days after the Tehelka expose broke, shows that the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party will garner a 48% vote share in the 2007 assembly polls to be held in two phases on December 11 and 16.

The projected voteshare is 2 percentage points less than the BJP’s actual voteshare of 50% in the 2002 assembly elections.

But despite the slide, the BJP should romp home to a majority with 93-103 seats.  The Congress is shown as improving its voteshare to 41% from 39% in 2002.

The vote share translates into 62 to 72 seats. Significantly, for the first time in more than a decade, the difference in vote share between BJP and Congress is less than 10 percentage points.               

The poll had a large sample size of 3,000 respondents spread across four socio-cultural regions (SCRs) of the state - Saurashtra, Kutch, North Gujarat and Gujarat Plains - and covered 35 towns comprising six town classes - class 1 to class 6. A structured questionnaire and a face-to-interview technique was adopted

Modi can rest assured that his personal charisma hasn’t dimmed one bit. With 77% (67% give him a ‘strongly agree’ rating and 10% an ‘agree’ rating) saying he is the best chief minister that Gujarat has ever had, the man seems to be enjoying good form in the electoral playground. But he might have a reason to worry as his ratings dip considerably among women and minorities.

In fact, with over 60% endorsing the statement that Modi would make a good prime minister, it seems that Gujaratis want their chief minister to have a national role, something that Modi has been hankering after for a long time.

Congress, at least on the personal charisma front, lags quite a bit with a substantial 60% saying that there is no one in the Congress camp who can match Modi’s charisma and stature.

Again, there is a substantial downturn in the ratings given by women and minorities. It’s crucial for Modi as 58 % of women voters and 68 % of non-Hindu voters cast their ballots in 2002.

If the efforts of the Congress to regain its old KHAM - Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslims - formula work, the battle might be more closely fought than what the survey indicates.

But Modi can be happy his campaign to project himself as a man concerned with economic issues seems to be working. The sample was given 10 issues - economy, jobs, poverty reduction, inflation, agriculture, law and order, communal violence, safety and security of minorities, caste and reservations - to rate.

The top three issues were economy (34%), inflation (22%) and jobs (16%), all intractably linked with daily bread and butter. But the downturn for Modi is that two of the top three - inflation and jobs - indicate dissatisfaction at the manner in which they have been tackled by the Modi government.