Monsoon is a bit late, but no worries for now, says weather office

The monsoon, crucial to India's crops, is running four to five days behind schedule and is yet to reach half the country, though rains are expected by the weekend, a senior weather bureau official said today.

A good monsoon is vital to defuse supply-side inflationary pressure in Asia's third-largest economy and allow the government to press ahead with key economic reforms such as freeing up fuel prices, which may not be possible if prices remain high.

The progress of the country's annual rains is "behind schedule", said a senior official of the India Meteorological Department, who did not wish to be named.

"The monsoon is likely to revive in the next two to three days," the official said and ruled out any cause for concern now. Usually the monsoon covers central and western India by mid-June.

Another official said there was no cause to worry over the rice, cane, cotton and soya crops.

"There is no need to panic even if rains over central India get delayed by five to seven days," said LS Rathore, head of the agricultural meteorology division of the weather office, adding that initial hiccups were not serious aberrations and a swift progress of the monsoon winds could make up for an early deficit.

Rathore and other experts said the July rains hold the key to farm output.

"Crops will gain immensely if next month's rains are good and well distributed," said SL Gupta, secretary of the Uttar Pradesh Sugar Mills Association.

The monsoon, after an initial lull this month, has entered the rice-, cane- and oilseed-growing southwestern region of India, but has yet to reach the soybean-growing areas of central India and northern Uttar Pradesh, the country's top cane-growing state.

Last year the weather department turned out to be wrong in its prediction of rains for the annual southwest monsoon, which runs from June to September, and many traders remain wary of this year's forecast as well.

"Rains occurred a bit in some parts. But it does not look like monsoon rains," said Rajesh Agrawal, spokesperson for the Soybean Processors Association of India, based in central India.

He said soybean sowing would start in central India once the monsoon sets in by next week as predicted.

For the first fortnight of the four-month season, overall rains were deficient as Cyclone Phet over the Arabian Sea slowed the initial progress of the monsoon.

Rainfall since June 1, the start of the season, was 7% below a normal of 62.4 mm, a source in the weather office, who declined to be named, told Reuters.

The monsoon hit India's southern tip on May 31, a day ahead of schedule.

D Sivananda Pai, director of the National Climate Centre in Pune, told Reuters he was still forecasting a normal monsoon for this season.

Heavy rains were expected over the central and western regions of the country later this week, said Pai, ruling out any weak phase in the monsoon.

The weather office will update its forecast next week.

Government policymakers are hoping good rains, after last year's drought, will help rein in inflation, currently at more than 10%, and provide room to ease curbs on export of wheat and rice.

High food prices have also sparked street protests.

Soaring inflation had also been a key concern for a government panel empowered to decide on easing state controls on fuel prices.