After Pakistan and Sri Lanka, another neighbour, Nepal, is giving us cause for concern. The situation in the Himalayan neighbour remains tense with the Maoists fighting the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and the Nepali Congress. Prime minister Prachanda’s stand-off with army chief Gen Rookmangud Katawal has added to the tension.
“The multi-layered consensus forged by the seven-party alliance in Nepal is breaking. We are trying our best to get all concerned to rebuild the consensus and get on with the job of drafting a new constitution for the country,” a senior official who did not wish to be identified said. But he admitted “Nepal is becoming a major worry.”
India wants to make sure that Nepal does not slip into anarchy once again and that there is no “outside” interference. This naturally refers to China. New Delhi has always been concerned about China’s growing influence in Nepal.
Kathmandu, knowing this, has always played its cards well, balancing its ties with India with that of China. The monarchy did so and now Prachanda plays the China card at India.
When he took over as PM, the first official visit he made was to Beijing. For India it is therefore important to ensure that China does not gain the upper hand in Nepal.
The last thing Indian policy-makers want is instability in Nepal. With Sri Lanka on the edge, Bangladesh recovering from a mutiny and Pakistan sliding into chaos, India’s troubled neighbourhood is giving nightmares to South Bock, because instability in the neighbourhood often spills over and creates problems here.
A Nepali newspaper recently suggested that the army was plotting a coup against the Maoist-led government and went to the extent of suggesting that India blocked the move. New Delhi dismissed the suggestion as preposterous. The army, too, denied the report but all this has led to a situation of uncertainty and suspicion among all major political parties that came together to abolish the monarchy.
And the situation there shows little signs of improvement with the hard line Maoists keen to get rid of the army chief.
The Maoists, who fought the army before coming over ground, remain deeply suspicious of the military.
The army is seen as loyal to the monarchy and despite switching allegiance the suspicion remains. The army is also very much opposed to Maoists joining its ranks.
