Amid the surge in COVID-19 cases in the country, researchers at IIT Kanpur affirmed the possibility of a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic by February 3, 2022. The report published in the online preprint health server MedRxiv has raised another alarm amid the already rising cases of the Omicron variant.
“Following the trends around the world, this project report forecasts India’s third wave may start around mid-December and peak at the beginning of February”, as mentioned in the published report.
The statistical tool ‘Gaussian Mixture’ model was used to present a near accurate analysis of the ongoing COVID-19 situation and predict the third wave.
The researchers studied data of the first and second waves in India to ascertain the future pattern of a possible third wave in the country. Particular emphasis was laid on analysing the current rise in Omicron-led COVID-19 cases in many other countries.
The research team of MedRxiv is drawn from the department of mathematics and statistics at IIT-K. Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Shalabh and Subhra Sankar Dhar are the leading members of the research team.
According to the researcher’s study, “the cases reach peak value after 735 days from our initial observation date, which is January 30, 2020, when India reported its first official case of COVID-19. So, the cases start rising around December 15, 2021, and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, February 3, 2022”.
Earlier, the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee members predicted the third wave to hit the country at the beginning of 2022. The committee’s head Vidyasagar informed that the third wave would be milder than the second one.
India’s Omicron tally has already crossed 350, and the government has warned that people must remain vigilant and follow all Covid necessary protocols as the world is witnessing the fourth surge in COVID cases.
With IANS inputs
