The high-octane state assembly elections as set to begin in Punjab from February 20. The stage is set for a dramatic shift in the balance of power with the recent turmoil in ranks appearing to cost Congress heavily. Factors like anti-incumbency, the high-profile party exit of former CM Amarinder Singh and turmoil under the leadership of CM Charanjit Singh Channi and state party president Navjot Singh Sidhu, are likely to result in a massive dip in vote share as well as seat share. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is projected to make huge gains from 24 in 2017 to 36-39 this time, as per the Zee News-DesignBoxed opinion poll of 1 lakh 5 thousand respondents from the 117 constituencies across Punjab's three regions Majha, Doab and Malwa.
For the CM face in Punjab, it looks to be a race between Congress' Charanjit Singh Channi and AAP's Bhagwant Mann. Congress, which won 77 seats in 2017, is projected to have a steep fall to 35-38. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is expected to give a similar performance, gaining one seat from 25 as per the projections.
Clouds of coalition
Opinion polls project a hung assembly in Punjab in 2022, with AAP, Congress and SAD the biggest parties. The projections are driving Punjab to one of four alternative government formations, if the opinion polls prove to be correct. The first and the most likely alternative would be a coalition between AAP (39) and Congress (38), which could lead to 77 seats, enough to surpass the golder number of 59 to form the government. In the second alternative, if AAP (39) and SAD (35) come together, that also crosses the majority mark at 74 seats. The third alternative would be SAD (35) and Congress (38), getting to 73 seats. The fourth option, if no parties are able to form a majority alliance, is President's Rule.
Here's a table of comparisons of vote share and seats won from 2017 assembly polls in Punjab and the projections from the opinion polls.
How Punjab voted in 2017?
Vote Share (in percent):
|
Congress
|
39
|
|
SAD+
|
25
|
|
AAP
|
24
|
|
BJP+
|
05
|
|
Others
|
07
|
Seat Share (out of 117):
|
Congress
|
77
|
|
SAD+
|
15
|
|
AAP
|
20
|
|
BJP+
|
3
|
|
Others
|
2
|
Vote Share (in percent):
|
Congress:
|
30
|
|
SAD+
|
26
|
|
AAP
|
33
|
|
BJP+
|
06
|
|
Others
|
05
|
Seat Share (out of 117):
|
Congress
|
35-38
|
|
SAD+
|
32-35
|
|
AAP
|
36-39
|
|
BJP+
|
4-7
|
|
Others
|
2-4
|
