Prabhakaran made two fatal mistakes which brought about his downfall. One was his complete isolation from the rest of the world and the decision to eliminate former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi.
In 1991, Indian reporters visiting Jaffna were flooded with questions from LTTE leaders about the chances of the Congress returning to power. The thinking was: If Rajiv is elected, his first priority would be to avenge the humiliation suffered by the IPKF — when ex-president Premadasa and Prabhakaran got together to throw out the Indian army from the island.
Prabhakaran himself was convinced Rajiv would win the elections and turn his mind to LTTE. Prabhakaran was advised not to go ahead with his assassination plan as it would have long-term implications. Instead, he was advised to send feelers to make up with the Congress.
Anton Balasingham the most visible face of the Tigers, and one of Prabhakaran’s trusted aides was against Rajiv’s assassination. But the LTTE chief went against all advice.
He did not know when it was time to talk peace, unlike fellow South Asian Maoist Prachanda in Nepal, who read the situation correctly. When Chandrika Kumaratunga came to power, with her liberal non chauvinistic agenda and offered a peace deal to the LTTE, he summarily rejected it and broke the ceasefire by attacking a naval ship in Trincomalee.
Chandrika and her late film star husband were among a handful of Sinhala leaders in the ’80s who sympathised with the Tamil cause. Yet he sent assasins to kill her and though she escaped, she became a hardliner. She believed Prabhakaran would never opt for peace.
Kumaratunga was not successful in her bid to wipe out the LTTE and the army suffered several reverses in Mullaitivue and left an unfinished agenda for Rajapaksa. Later, Prabhakaran admitted that killing Rajiv and alienating India was not the correct decision. Much of the sympathy for the Tamil cause disappeared in India and no government in Delhi would maintained contact with the outfit.
The LTTE boss also failed to realise that after 9/11, the world would not tolerate terror, however just the cause. Colombo could do what it liked without the world extending a helping hand to the Tamil cause.
