The defeat in byelections to BMC's Bhandup seat comes as a shock for the Shiv Sena. On Thursday, BJP's Jagruti Patil's trounced Sena's Meenakshi Patil by 4,792 votes. The election in the ward number 116 was necessitated by the death of Congress corporator and Jagruti's mother-in-law Pramila Patil.
Shiv Sena sources admitted that apart from sympathy towards the BJP candidate, the defeat showed that the party's policy of being in power yet acting out the role of the opposition was working against it. Meenakshi is the wife of local Shiv Sena MLA Ashok Patil.
Jagruti Patil, who attributed the victory to her mother-in-law and her work in the ward, got 11,129 votes against Meenakshi's 6,337 votes. Pramila Singh of the Congress secured just 972 votes.
After this win, BJP now has 82 corporators against the Sena's 84. Though the BJP had won 82 seats in the BMC polls in February, the death of Kandivali corporator Shailaja Girkar had brought down its tally to 81.
"This was the result of a sympathy vote. This is a victory of the Patil family and not that of the BJP," said a Shiv Sena source. However, there is a larger message for the Shiv Sena, which continues to be part of the state and central governments and still takes on the BJP and PM Modi.
"Today, the Congress' star seems on the ascendant. The Shiv Sena and the NCP are losing support for being in power and acting like the opposition and the latter for being in the opposition and looking for a dalliance with the BJP," he explained.
"Raj Thackeray is trying to revive his party (MNS). That holds a threat for the Shiv Sena, which must consolidate itself… the real threat for the Sena lies in areas outside the Mumbai-Thane belt," the Shiv Sena source said.
Sena legislators grumble that despite the party enjoying a strong base in areas outside Mumbai like the Konkan, Marathwada, North Maharashtra and Western Vidarbha, the organisation has done little to build up organic, grassroots leaderships there. They complain that the Shiv Sena has developed a Mumbai-centric focus over the years, which comes at the cost of its base in semi-urban and rural Maharashtra.
Despite the increasing tide of linguistic politics, the falling numbers of Maharashtrians in Mumbai and a section of upper and middle-class Maharashtrians shifting loyalties to the BJP too does not augur well for the Shiv Sena.
Ashok Patil, Shiv Sena MLA from Bhandup, whose wife Meenakshi lost the byelection— her second consecutive defeat from the seat — charged that the BJP's victory was the result of "manipulation of EVM machines".
He admitted that the victory margin had increased from just 358 to around 4,791. In the 2014 assembly elections, Patil had a lead of 1,100 votes from the ward.
Incidentally, the ward has a strong Maharashtrian presence. Of the 38,105 voters around 15,000 are Marathi speakers, followed by 12,000 North Indians.
A Shiv Sena legislator from the eastern suburbs alleged that the BJP had used money power to make the cut. He however admitted, albeit grudgingly, that the Shiv Sena or even the opposition parties were unable to capture the anti-incumbency votes and were tying themselves up in knots over opposing the BJP.
"Our only hope is the rejuvenation of the Congress, as it may take away some floating and auxiliary votes away from the BJP. The Shiv Sena has a committed vote base," he claimed.
