Intense pressure from the US and the massive anti-government protests across the state after the rape and murder of two teenagers in Shopian are forcing the political leadership to contemplate thinning down Army presence in J&K. In response, Army headquarters has cautioned that any decision should be taken after the summer.
US pressure is a result of president Barack Obama’s AfPak (Afghanistan-Pakistan) policy, which is focussed against terrorists holed up in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Washington’s message is that India should respond to Pakistan moving several battalions from its border with India to Afghanistan and for its operations against the Taliban. “Their argument is that Pakistani support is necessary for cleaning up Afghanistan,” said a senior source in the security establishment.
The other key factor is the prevailing peace in the valley. “We have to respond to the improving situation in Kashmir,” said a source in the intelligence community.
The number of violent incidents until May 31 had dropped 30% to 186 against 270 last year. Similarly, the number of infiltrations had dropped: In May, only six terrorists entered Kashmir compared to the 40 last year.
According to sources, the proposal taking shape is to move the Army out of major cities in J&K and parts of the valley, and let the state police or the Central Reserve Police Force take charge.
An official said a three-stage process was being planned: thinning Army presence, reducing CRPF personnel, and finally, giving the state police a hand in security matters.
“The CRPF has not been very impressive. Look at the Shopian rape and murder. The women were possibly CRPF informers who were killed by militants. But once their death became public, the CRPF mishandled it,” he said, adding, “Earlier, we could not trust the state police but today the situation is different.”
The Army is warning against any hasty decision. “The right time (to reduce troops) would be when militancy is reduced to almost zero on a sustained basis and not just for a few days, and when the civil police are ready to take over. Today, that isn’t the case,” said a senior officer. While he agreed that militancy and violence had gone down, he said grimly, “But summer has begun and the Amarnath Yatra has just started. If the Army leaves and militants regroup, it will take us years to regain our advantage.”
Another Army officer said any such decision will be long-drawn. “It took us almost 10 years to withdraw a division,” he said, adding, “We could look at rearranging the areas of responsibility between the local police and the paramilitary forces. But not in a hurry, even that would take some time.”
