The stunning and largely unforeseen victory of Donald Trump as the 45th US president poses new and formidable challenges to India’s foreign policy and security establishment as well as to its economy, business and industry.
The situation calls for quick reflexes on the foreign policy front followed by more studied responses to issues such as the new administration’s impact on the IT and pharmaceutical sectors and H1B visas, on which it is too early to expect clarity at this stage.
There would be much interest in India’s first responses to a Trump presidency, which is expected to find expression in some form during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s summit meeting with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe in Tokyo on Nov 10 and 11. The post-summit statement would be read as a message to Trump as well as to Beijing. At the same time, what is stated in Tokyo would only be a teaser of what remains to be spelled out in due course.
In external affairs, India’s top priorities are relations with Pakistan and China. In dealing with these two neighbours — one dangerous and the other difficult — South Block has reasons to see Trump as a powerful ally, mainly in its bid to isolate Pakistan globally in the aftermath of the Uri attack. The President-elect has called Pakistan as “probably the most dangerous country in the world” which matches New Delhi’s view of it as “the mothership of terrorism”. New Delhi’s evolving wavelength with a Trump presidency may well determine the course of events that began with the surgical strikes.
New Delhi may also look forward to Trump’s tenancy of the White House for getting the better of China, which has not relented on India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group or the sanctioning of JeM chief Masood Azhar of Pakistan as a “terrorist”.
Trump has been openly contemptuous of China, which he considers an “adversary”. He has threatened to penalise China if it fails to renegotiate trade deals on Washington’s terms. Regardles of whether a Trump Administration can walk its election campaign talk, the fact that he seems set against China might be to India’s advantage. Prime Minister Modi’s perception of such an advantage, if any, may be indicated in the India-Japan joint statement — for instance, it could be by way of a reference to the international tribunal’s order dismissing China’s claims over the South China Sea.
After Pakistan and China, the ‘great game’ in Afghanistan is a big security and foreign policy challenge facing India. Trump has so far rooted for a wider Afghan-India security partnership, also with an eye on containing Pakistan. In fact, his case for continuing US troops in Afghanistan is to use that country as a base to contain Pakistan, prevent Pakistan-backed depredations in Afghanistan and hold up Afghanistan from collapsing as a state. The continued presence of US troops under a US President uncompromisingly opposed to Pakistan and its role in Afghanistan would be a big strategic and security boost to India.
The author is an independent political and foreign affairs commentator
