Uttar Pradesh Election Results: Why Akhilesh Yadav may be down, but not out

For the first four years, after Samajwadi Party won the last Uttar Pradesh assembly polls, the state was infamously said to have functioned with three-and-a-half CMs. And then Akhilesh decided to take control of not just the government, but his party as well. But was he too late?

From the SP's point of view, this was a direct contest between brand Modi and brand Akhilesh and there is no doubt that having secured just 47 seats, Akhilesh's brand value has taken a massive hit. The internal family feud is likely to begin again. But political analysts say that Akhilesh cannot be written off just yet. SP's future without Akhilesh may be impossible, and so Akhilesh Yadav will remain a relevant and even an important figure in UP politics. 

In order to emerge from this crisis, where SP has got its lowest ever share of seats in UP, the party may have to look at the areas where they failed. According to analysts, there may be four major reasons for this - the initial three years of under-performance as a Chief Minister, the last-minute family feud, the 11th hour alliance with Congress and Prime Minister Modi’s undeniable charisma. But political scientists say that what really dragged down Akhilesh was his failure to attract OBCs, other than his loyal support base of Yadavs, together. The sort of task that his father Mulayam Singh was a specialist at. Analysts added that had Akhilesh set up his fight with the local BJP leadership and not directly with the PM, he could’ve performed much better. 

No support from his father Mulayam Singh cost Akhilesh, as Netaji is considered to be a master of social engineering. Mulayam Singh chose not to guide his "rebel son", but also remained absent from campaigning. He just addressed three rallies, which included campaigning only for his younger daughter-in-law Aparna Yadav and brother Shivpal Yadav.
 
Keen political observer of UP politics Nadeem Hasnain said Akhilesh failed miserably in social engineering and BJP clearly defeated SP at the party's own game. BJP got the undivided support of Rajbhars, Mauryas, Lunias and Kurmis — OBC castes that had voted for the BSP and Samajwadi Party to power in the previous two elections — and the support of Thakurs, Banias and Brahmins. 
 
"It may be because of inexperience, but Akhilesh laid too much emphasis only on Yadavs and forgot to look at the other important OBC castes like Kurmis and Lodhis who are the second-largest castes in UP. It is evident from the results that all OBCs, except Yadavs, clearly deserted SP. Muslim votes too got divided between SP and BSP," Hasnain, who teaches at Lucknow University said. 
 
However, he added that Akhilesh can certainly not be written off. "Akhilesh is a smart leader, has a clean image and the youth connect with him. The General Elections will be held just two years from now and if Akhilesh manages to cut across caste lines, he can emerge as a big politician." 

Another political observer Abhay Kumar Dubey, who teaches at the Centre for the Study of Development Sciences echoed similar views. He said, "Akhilesh failed miserably at cobbling up the unity of lower castes, a task at which his father was great. To get the votes of all the communities, he failed to create an overarching social alliance. Muslims, whose votes also got split with BSP, and Yadavs cannot make him win the election and he needs to understand this if he wants to remain in politics."
 
While campaigning during the two-month marathon polls, Akhilesh Yadav, had mainly focussed on development work by citing his big projects like the Metro Rail and Agra-Lucknow Expressway. The young minister failed to read the importance of caste politics, which evidently did wonders for BJP. In public gatherings, he would often tell people, “This election will prove if people voted for caste or for their aspirations.”

Political analysts say Akhilesh has got his answer and should rework on social engineering before 2019, when general elections would be held in the country. They told DNA that Akhilesh's decision to ally with Congress just before the first phase of elections did not really go in his favour. They also criticized his decision of giving too many i.e 105 seats to Congress. 
Even hardcore Congress supporters believed they were not in the reckoning in even 50 seats, but Akhilesh chose to give 105 seats to its alliance partner despite Congress having no presence on the ground. It is worth pointing out that Congress has been out of UP leadership for the last 27 years. 
 
As UP swept out Congress on Saturday, political scientists said it is time for Akhilesh to rethink whether he wants to continue its tie-up with the Congress as the General Elections is just two years away from now. SP's hopes of getting votes of Congress's upper caste base for the alliance also clearly didn't work for the party. The results showed that Congress's upper caste base — even though not much-- shifted to the BJP. 

SP's party infighting of course, cost Akhilesh heavily. By the time Akhilesh hit the campaign trail after his war with uncle Shivpal Yadav and father Mulayam Singh Yadav, the BJP had already adjusted its caste arithmetic. To counter Shivpal's allegations of Akhilesh being the "rebel in the Yadav family", the young CM needed an extended campaign throughout Uttar Pradesh. But Akhilesh had no time on his side. 
 
What complicated matters for Akhilesh was the strong undercurrent of anti-incumbency against some of his MLAs who failed to connect with the public as much as Akhilesh wanted them to. Most of his ministers proved to be liabilities and they lost by huge margins. Ram Govind Chaudhary, Gayatri Prajapati, Arvind Singh Gope, Abhishek Mishra, Ravidas Mehrotra, Narendra Verma, Shivakant Ojha, Riyaz Ahmad and Yaseer Shah all lost the election. 
 
Akhilesh's closet aides said that the timing of alliance with Congress was also a bit late. "Had the alliance been formed six months ago, we would have been in a much better position today," said an associate of Akhilesh. He added that because of less time, the party workers of Congress and SP could not unite on the ground.

BJP also beat SP in perception management. It came across like a party appeasing minorities rather than a party for all communities. What added to the woes of the Samajwadi Party alliance, was BJP's propaganda around kabristans, Eid and 'kuchh ka vikaas, kuchh ka saath' which worked among voters, creating a wave of support for the BJP because of its Hindutva line. Muslim votes on the other hand, clearly split between SP and BSP candidates.