Will rising sea sink Gujarat’s business plans?

The strength of Gujarat, its 1,600 km long coastline, is also emerging as a big threat for its development in the years to come. Much of the state's development, led by industrialisation, is centred on the coast. But the recent debate over the imminent threat of sea level rise, changing the topography as early as in the next 50 years, poses great challenges for the administration. 

Even as investment worth millions has already been pledged at various strategic points across the coast, the Gujarat government it seems now is sincerely trying to understand the specific impacts global warming can have in these areas.

During his recent visit to Gujarat, union environment minister Jairam Ramesh had told DNA that planning for the future now absolutely has to be done with elaborate research on how Sea Level Rise (SLR) will impact it in years to come. “It is no more a question of if, only a question of when,” he said. This, he insisted, is despite the IPCC's projections of Himalayan glaciers melting by 2035 coming undone.

Vulnerable coast
 It is not without reason good reason that Gujarat is the only state as yet to have founded a dedicated department for Climate Change. At the risk of learning uncomfortable truths, a major study has been commissioned by the state government to map the vulnerability index of the coastal eco-system. The final findings of this study are expected to be submitted in about three years, but interim results are expected at the end of one year. Intriguingly however, the CC department has no role to play here. The study has been commissioned through the Gujarat Ecology Commission to the state-run science research institute Bhaskaracharya Institute of Space Applications and Geo-Informatics (BISAG).

At a workshop on climate change organised recently by the state's premier research agency GEC in Gandhinagar, former ISRO scientist Dr Vijay K Agarwal told DNA that the Vulnerability Index will help in identifying places where development work could be undertaken and which areas would be harmful.
"The findings of the study are expected to form the foundation of how the planned development activities along the coast are affecting the ecology, and how the changing ecology, of which we do not know the reason and the extent, will impact this development in years to come," said Dr Agarwal, who is now director academic affairs of BISAG and heading the study.

Nightmare Projections
A few minutes later, his presentation showed to a group of around 30 government officials some shocking satellite images seen here — a projection of how Gujarat will be affected by sea-level rise. (The images have been directly reproduced from the presentation.)

The state of Gujarat, it is projected, will result into three virtual islands — Mainland consisting of North, Central and South Gujarat; second island of a much reduced land mass of Kutch and the third, what we now know as Saurashtra. "This is very cursory data, not final. These are projections. It is a proven that sea level has risen in the past and on that basis, projections for the future have been made," Dr Agarwal says.

Should you worry?
According to currently available data, the sea-level has risen by 0.25 mt between 1960-2004 (44 years). If the increase is at the same pace, we are looking at a one meter rise at least a century later.

But here's the twist - the SLR has increased manifold in the past decade, allegedly because of global warming and glacial melt. Some scientific projections even point at an increase of 0.5-0.75 mt rise much before the end of the century.

Though reasons are not confirmed, it is now an undisputed fact that whatever be the reasons, the sea is coming closer. Scientists further elaborate that every coast will react differently to rise in sea level, mainly due to the contour of the sea bed. On this basis, Dahej, the Gulf of Kutch and Gulf of Khambhat are so far been believed to be the most vulnerable. Initial projections of an ongoing ISRO study by senior scientist Dr Ajai highlights these facts.

These facts were reiterated in Dr Agarwal's presentation. The images are self explanatory. But to put things in perspective, massive industrial development has already happened on Dahej, Kutch and Gulf of Khambhat.

What happens to the industrial houses and the people already residing around these? What's more, much more has already been planned without reflecting on how SLR might impact it. For Gujarat's rapid industrial development, it has often been alleged that it happens with scant regard to environment and wildlife. Ironically, here is an inadvertent situation where nature might come back for its pound of flesh.

Institutes galore
A striking development is the number of institutes the Gujarat government has put out in recent times for research and development either directly or indirectly related to environment.

The Gujarat Ecology Commission was founded in early '90s for ecology research. This was followed a decade later by Gujarat Ecology and Environment Research Foundation (GEER). BISAG is commissioned research on similar subjects, with the aid of satellite imagery.

Institute of Seismological Research (ISR) and Indian Institute of Advanced Research (IIAR) are commissioned research indirectly related to environment. This is in addition to the basic and applied research already being conducted by the Government of India's Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Physical Research Laboratory and Institute for Plasma Research. SAC has a department dedicated to Climate Change.

The recently announced Climate Change department by the Gujarat government is also expected to undertake its own research and development, and be the nodal agency to coordinate for all such projects. The department is yet to start functioning full force.

A major project of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) worth Rs 298 crore was sanctioned for Gujarat by the Union Cabinet last week. Last month, the Science City celebrated the National Science Day, whose theme this year is to highlight the role of science in the protection of environment.

However, Dr Agarwal is immensely optimistic. "The task of analysing the data generated is mammoth. Multiple agencies are involved and we are working out the details," he told DNA.