A lot has been made after the results of the Assembly Elections 2018 which saw elections in five states. A jubilant Opposition has claimed that the results of the assembly elections in five states – Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana – indicates that BJP’s time is up in the Centre.
While it is risky to say with certitude what the future holds, the past is a lesson. To this end, Zee News has tied up with VMR to analyse BJP’s percentage of votes in Assembly Elections and mapped it with Lok Sabha numbers from the past to see how the numbers could tilt.
Percentage of votes compared
Madhya Pradesh (BJP vote share)
2013- 45%
2014- 54%
2018- 41%
2019 – 50% (projected assuming there is a 4% negative swing like in 2018 compared to votes received in 2013)
Based on this, the BJP ought to win 25 seats in Madhya Pradesh in the upcoming general election, which will be two fewer than 27 they one in 2014.
Rajasthan (BJP vote share)
2013 – 45%
2014 – 55%
2018 – 39%
2019 – 49%(projected assuming there is a 10% negative swing like in 2018 compared to votes received in 2013)
Based on the aforementioned numbers BJP will win 20 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan, which will be five fewer than last time.
Chhattisgarh (BJP vote share)
2013 - 41%
2014 – 49%
2018 – 33%
2019 - 41% (projected assuming there is a 8% negative swing like in 2018 compared to votes received in 2013)
According to the aforementioned data, BJP will win five seats, which will be 6 fewer from 2014 when it won 11.
In Telangana, the TRS has managed to rack up a vote share of 47% winning 88 seats and the chances are they will most likely be part of NDA and win all the seats. There are 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state and KCR’s party is likely to get them all. In Mizoram, given the MNF’s – which is part of NDA and NEDA – dominance, it’s likely to wrest the only Lok Sabha seat from Congress.
Now we shall break up the country in four parts to see how BJP and its NDA allies, perform compare to Cong and its UPA allies.
North India
North India has a total of 10 states, with 172 seats. In 2014, the BJP won 137 of them and Congress 9. Based on state results, it’s estimated that the BJP will win only 87 seats while Congress will get around 30. If we include allies, then the total count for NDA will go up to 91. However, UPA – which could see Congress tie up with BSP and SP – could see their total count go up to 76. Others, non-NDA and non-UPA parties could get 5 seats.
NDA - 91
UPA - 76
Others - 5
South India
South India
In 2014, the BJP got 22 seats while the Congress got 19. Based on state polls, BJP’s number would decrease to 20 while Congress’ goes up to 26.
If we include possible NDA allies like YRS Congress, TRS and AIADMK, NDA’s count goes up to 67. The UPA - including Left parties, TDP and DMK - is likely to get 62, while others are likely to end up with 2 seats. Of course, it’s important to note that none of these alliances are final and things could change based on mitigating circumstances.
2019 prediction
NDA-67
UPA- 62
Others - 2
East India
East India consists of 12 states with 137 seats. BJP got 45 seats and Congress 14, but the numbers are likely to change to 40 and 22 respectively. Including allies like JD(U) and LJP, NDA is likely to get 54 seats. On the other hand, UPA which has RJD and may get TMC on board, ought to end up with 73.
NDA- 54
UPA-73
Others-10
Western India
Meanwhile, Western India has six states and 103 seats. Last time around BJP got 78 seats and Congress just 2. The number is likely to go down for BJP to 65 and up to 18 for Congress. The NDA, which includes Shiv Sena and MGP, could get 81 seats while UPA could get around 22 seats.
Predicted number of seats
NDA- 81
UPA - 22
.
Final Tally
NDA - 293
UPA - 233
Others - 17
Cumulatively, this means that in 2019, BJP could end up with 212 seats, 70 fewer than their tally in 2014 while the Congress would increase to 96, 52 more than 2014. The NDA ought to end up with 293, while the UPA could get 233 and others non-NDA, non-UPA parties could end up with 17. Of course all analyses come with riders and we will only know the truth when the results are counted in 2019.
