BJP & Shiv Sena hoping to further tighten grip on Maharashtra

The upcoming assembly election may be remembered for a further crucial shake-up in Maharashtra politics. With major defections from the Congress and NCP to BJP and Shiv Sena, along with BJP's thumping victory in the Lok Sabha elections, the ruling combine seems to be in a comfortable position in the state.

Region-wise analysis of all 288 seats shows that the BJP and Shiv Sena have secured the Konkan region including Mumbai, Vidarbha, north Maharashtra, and Marathwada. Riding on the Modi wave and the five-year report card of the state government led by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, BJP has repeatedly said it will be back for another term as there is no anti-incumbency.

Buoyed by the sterling performance in the Lok Sabha election in which the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance won 41 of the total 48 seats in the state, the saffron parties expect to improve their tally further in the assembly poll, cashing on their lead in the 228 constituencies. Further, the two are hoping that induction of influential leaders from NCP and Congress will come in handy to improve their performance.

Of the 288 seats, 71 seats are in western Maharashtra, of which 37 are held by BJP and Sena, 62 in Vidarbha (48), 46 in Marathwada (26), 39 in Konkan (24), 36 in Mumbai (29), 35 in north Maharashtra (21). In the 2014 assembly election, BJP independently won 122 seats while Shiv Sena bagged 63, while Congress bagged 42 and NCP 41.

The politically crucial western Maharashtra has been under BJP's radar. The party has in the last five years succeeded to dent the bastion of Congress and NCP. Even though Congress and the NCP still have their dominance in the cooperative sector, BJP is going the whole hog to spread its wings there. The party is quite confident that it will benefit from the former deputy chief minister Vijaysinh Mohite Patil and his son Ranjitsinh Mohite Patil in Solapur, former leader of opposition leader Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, former minister Madhukar Pichad, his son Vaibhav Pichad in the sugarcane-rich Ahmednagar district, former cooperation minister Harshvardhan Patil in Pune district. BJP has proposed to play up a slew of steps taken by the government for the rehabilitation and relief for people in the flood-ravaged Satara, Sangli, and Kolhapur.

Shiv Sena, which has a negligible presence in western Maharashtra, has also stepped up efforts to consolidate its position. Congress legislator Bhausaheb Kamble from Ahmednagar has joined the party.

''BJP-Sena combine is set to win at least 220 seats. People are by and large happy with the five-year rule of the saffron alliance and they will again vote for us," said State BJP president Chandrakant Patil.

In Vidarbha, which has 62 seats, BJP does not see any challenge from the Congress and NCP who are striving to stay afloat owing to a weak organisational base. Fadnavis, union minister Nitin Gadkari, state finance minister Sudhir Mungantiwar, state energy minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule are four prominent leaders who hail from the region. In the Lok Sabha election, BJP lost its Chandrapur seat to Congress but with Shiv Sena, got a lead in more than 50 assembly segments.

The severe drought in Marathwada notwithstanding, the BJP and Shiv Sena expect to improve their tally from the previous election's 26 seats. Fadnavis has already announced a water grid project for the region to help make it drought-free.

However, state Congress chief Balasaheb Thorat predicts that voters have taken note of BJP and Shiv Sena combine's move to promote defection. ''We expect different results in the assembly poll as compared to the Lok Sabha election,'' he said.

In the Konkan region, BJP will have to step up its efforts to further increase its seats. Party working president JP Nadda last week expressed concerns over the party's presence in the region where Shiv Sena has had its hold since 1990. However, the party hopes that former chief minister Narayan Rane's decision to merge his Maharashtra Swabhiman Paksha will be beneficial.

State Industries Minister Subhash Desai, who represents Shiv Sena in the ongoing seat-sharing talks with BJP, said, ''Sena will ride on the strong leadership of Uddhav Thackeray. The party has addressed several issues faced by farmers and played an important role in the implementation of loan waivers.'' He added that Thackeray has already declared that the party wants power for the overall development of the state.

In north Maharashtra, state water resources minister Girish Mahajan, who has emerged as a powerful leader, has not only outsmarted senior leader Eknath Khadse but also tightened his grip over the party's functioning. Of the 35 seats, BJP and Sena together had won 21 seats in last assembly poll and they are determined to increase the number further breaking the Congress and NCP stronghold.

State NCP president Jayant Patil countered BJP and Shiv Sena's claims of returning to power, saying, ''There has been a rise in unemployment, inflation. People have been badly hit due to the economic slowdown. On what merit will the BJP and Sena seek votes?'' he noted.