Does anyone know the real figures for Maharashtra rainfall deficit?

Logically, the first step to addressing a problem is to know its magnitude. But the Maharashtra government, staring at its worst drought ever, is clutching at three sets of figures, on the rainfall deficit. The IMD figures, agricultural department figures and another set cited in a cabinet note. And they don't match!

Maharashtra (where Marathwada fared the worst) has been number one deficit state in the country at 52% deficit for a long time. 

At the end of the south west monsoon 2015, the deficit of Marathwada is 40%. That this piggybacks the 42% rainfall deficit in Marathwada in 2014, with rainfall of just 398.8 mm.

While trying to analyse rainfall figures from various reputed official sources to understand the situation better, one is taken aback by the disparities. Even a cursory glance at official Indian Meteorological Department figures, official Maharashtra Agriculture Department (Rainfall Recording and Analysis) figures and numbers from the 49th Cabinet Committee Note of the Government of Maharashtra dated 30th September 2015, shows striking dissimilarities for rainfall from 1-6-2015 to 30-9-2015.

Met Department
IMD generates its rainfall data for Maharashtra based on its approximately 878 rain gauging stations spread across the state. According to IMD, regions of Maharashtra fall in rainfall deficit this year in varying proportions. Konkan region shows deficit of 31% with 2,914 mm rainfall, Madhya Maharashtra shows deficit of 33% with 488.1 mm rainfall, Vidarbha shows deficit of 11% with 848.2 mm rainfall, but the highest deficit is Marathwada at 40% with 412.4 mm rainfall.

According to IMD, between 1st June to 30th September, Maharashtra received 732.5 mm rainfall of its 1007.3 mm average normal rainfall, which is 73% of average rainfall (27% deficit). Districts that have received 50% or less of the average rainfall include Kolhapur (803.4mm, -54%), Solapur (231.8 mm, -51%), Beed (287.4 mm, -50%), Latur (372 mm, -51%) and Parbhani (344.9 mm, -54%).

Where is Madhya Maharashtra? Incidentally, IMD classifies the country in various categories. Maharashtra includes Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha. Madhya Maharashtra includes Nashik and Pune Divisions of whopping 10 districts, from Nandurbar, Dhule, Jalgaon, Nashik, Pune, Ahmednagar, Satara, Solapur, Sangli and Kolhapur. This region is not uniform in any sense, neither rainfall-wise, nor geographically nor is it ‘Madhya (Central) Maharashtra.’ Any assessment based on a Madhya Maharashtra is meaningless in a sense as it clubs Kolhapur, at the southern tip of Maharashtra whose normal rainfall is more than 1,500 mm with Dhule at the northern end of the state whose normal rainfall is about 500 mm and includes areas of Tapi, Narmada, Krishna and Godavari basins.

Maharashtra Agriculture Dept
Agriculture Department of GoM runs a very useful website:  maharain.gov.in which displays detailed data from its Rainfall Recording and Analysis Department. It states: “The department of Agriculture, Maharashtra State initiated the project for recording daily rainfall in the state in year 1998. Initially rainfall data was recorded at tehsil level and subsequently same functionality was extended to circle level from 2013 as GoM has installed rain gauge at every circle. Circle officer sends daily rain data using mobile through SMS. In addition to SMS rain data can be entered directly on the web portal.”

Prima facie it appears that Agriculture Department may have a better spread in the over 40,000 villages in Maharashtra than IMD’s 878 rain gauging stations. According to Agriculture Department, of the 353 administrative blocks in the state (talukas), 65 have received less than 50% rainfall (18.4% blocks). Most of these are concentrated in Solapur and Marathwada region, while 174 blocks have received rainfall between 50-75% rainfall.

 

Only 23 blocks have received 100% or above of normal, and these are concentrated in Vidarbha and Nandurbar, Northern Maharashtra.

Cabinet Note
Cabinet Note of GoM of 49th Meeting on 30th Sept 2015 reports that the state has received 678.5 mm rain of the average 1,131 mm. This is 59.9% or 60% of the average. But as we saw above, IMD says its 732.5 mm of average 1007.3 mm, which works out to 73% of the average. There is no explanation for such widely different figures in the cabinet note.

Agricultural experts like Nishinkant Bhalerao say that the 60% magic figure will make any drought aid difficult and that it masks the monthly disparities which very badly affected this season’s kharif crop. “For example, Marathwada received barely 14% of its July average rainfall, a mere 28 mm, but cumulatively due to late Septmeber rains, this anomaly is hidden,” he points out.

According to the note, 13 districts (Dhule, Nandurbar, Pune, Aurangabad, Buldana, Akola, Washim, Amravati, Wardha, Nagpur, Bhandara, Gondia, Gadchiroli) have received between 76-100% average rainfall, while 17 districts (Thane, Palghar, Raigad Ratnagiri, Sindhudurga, Jalgaon, Ahmednagar, Satara, Sangli, Jalna, Beed, Latur, Osmanabad, Nanded, Hingoli, Yavatmal, Chandrapur)  received between 51-75% average rainfall and 4 districts (Nashik, Solapur, Kolhapur and Parbhani), rainfall has been less than 50%.

Strangely, IMD states Nashik received 729 mm rainfall till 30th Sept and has just 20% rainfall deficit but for the same period, Agriculture Department shows Nashik has received just 484.8 mm rainfall, and shows a rainfall deficit of about 52%! The difference between the two values is whopping 244.2 mm, more than entire seasonal rainfall of Solapur!

IMD note also includes Beed (just about here at -50%) and Latur (-51%) in less than 50% rain. These simply cannot be found in the cabinet note. Agriculture Department statistics includes Osmanabad in less 50% rainfall bracket, again this is not included in the Cabinet Note.  The Note talks about 355 blocks, while Agri Dept considers 353 blocks and the Centre considers 351 blocks in Maharashtra.

Repeated attempts to get Water Resources Minister Girish Mahajan to react drew a blank. 

Parineeta Dandekar of the South Asia Network for Dams Rivers & People (SANDRP) why the figures are not streamlined to improve monsoon rainfall reporting. “This is especially important at a time when policies, drought assistance, insurance payment to farmers and water allocation decisions are heavily dependent on rainfall figures,” she pointed out and added, “If we can’t get our rainfall figures right, it raises a lot of questions about our capacity to monitor and understand the most important weather event of the year, on which lives of over 50% of the population directly depend! There is a vast difference not only in observed rainfall, but also supposed normal rainfall figures, which skew up percentages.”

She lamented that the government was not doing enough despite the dire condition. “Reservoirs storages at Maharashtra state level are at 56% of live storage capacity right now. But this is again masking the regional disparities. Marathwada has just 15% storage nine months ahead before the next monsoon. Four of its reservoirs- Mazalgaon, Manjara, Nimn Terna, Nimn Dudhna - are at zero Live Storage.

The biggest dam Jayakwadi is at a mere 7% storage, Nashik division upstream of Marathwada also has relatively low storage at 59%. Though Pune is relatively better at 61% and Nagpur, Amravati and Konkan divisions are above 70%. Some contingency steps need to be taken immediately.”

Pointing out how even in this situation, westward diversion of water from drought-hit Bhima-Krishna basin to high rainfall Konkan region and down to sea continues, with no attempt to stop it completely she added, “There is no information available in public domain about district-wise planning of available water resources till the next monsoon. No strong decision has been taken by the government about restricting or regulating sugarcane crushing which will commence from 15th October and which will consume lakhs of liters of water in the most severely drought-affected parts of the state.”

Fellow SANDRP activist Himanshu Thakkar too underlined how no strong decision on limiting new area under sugarcane in Solapur and Marathwada regions, which will be planted after this harvesting and crushing season have been announced. ”While IMD states that Maharashtra has received more than 70% average rainfall and State Government pegs it at around 60%, the reality is that water situation in Maharashtra especially Western Maharashtra, Nashik region and Marathwada is dismal. Erratic rainfall with long dry spell in July and August has affected Kharip crops, groundwater levels and surface water storages. There is a need to immediately work on a participatory contingency planning of the available water resources for the coming year.”

Insisting planning cannot happen in a closed door manner by the cabinet or group of ministers, he suggested inclusion to all stake holders - water users and farmers on the principles of equity and sustainability. The MWRRA  should its act together.”

 

Below: Notable differences between IMD and State Govt Data. For two consecutive years, Parbhani has received less than 50% rainfall (326.9 mm this year). In fact it’s June –July August Rainfall this year is lowest in the century.

Solapur gets less than 1972 rainfall: According to Agriculture Dept, Solapur has received low rainfall of barely 193.9 mm from June-Sept. This is on top of 25% rainfall deficit in 2014 monsoon. In the epic drought of 1972 also, Solapur received more than this at 224.9 mm rainfall.[vi] This year, Solapur has received less than half of the rainfall Rajasthan received! This also seems to be the lowest monsoon rainfall Solapur received since 1901!

The district which has shown the highest deficit is Kolhapur. As per Agriculture Department data, it has received just 634.8 mm rainfall, 35.8% of its normal average monsoon rainfall. Strangely, IMD shows 803.4 mm rainfallthis monsoon for Kolhapur, which is 46% of normal. The difference of 168.6 mm is too huge to be ignored and needs to be explained.