The flyers canvassing support for Shiv Sena MP Arvind Sawant seem like any other campaign material distributed during elections. However, these pamphlets in Gujarati underline the demographic shift in the erstwhile Marathi stronghold of South Mumbai and the Sena's inevitability of reaching out to an auxiliary vote-base.
In 2014, Sawant defeated then union minister of state Milind Deora by 1.28 lakh votes, in what was widely attributed to the Narendra Modi wave. These elections saw non-Maharashtrians turn out for the Sena in large numbers, ensuring the saffron alliance swept all six seats in Mumbai. Now, Sawant is fighting a tough battle against Deora. Though Bala Nandgaonkar of the rival Raj Thackeray-led MNS, who had cornered over 84,000 votes in 2014, mostly those of Marathi speakers, is not contesting, the party is working for the Congress-NCP.
Shiv Sena leaders admit their task has been made tough by the change in demographics as traditional Marathi-dominated areas like Girgaon, Lalbag and Parel, are witnessing a rise in non-Marathi speakers like Gujaratis, Marwadis and Jains. Hence, the party is trying to reach out to these groups in a familiar language and idiom.
"We distribute campaign material in Marathi, English, Gujarati, Urdu and Hindi. This is done in specific areas favourable for us," said Shiv Sena vibhag pramukh (division chief) and Sewri MLA Ajay Choudhari.
He reckoned that of the around 16 lakh voters, around 40% are Maharashtrians. Of the six assembly segments of Colaba, Mumbadevi, Malabar Hill, Worli, Sewri and Byculla, the Marathi-speakers dominate Worli and Sewri, with pockets of influence elsewhere.
After Sawant's swashbuckling 2014 victory, much water has flown down the bridge.
On May 1, 2014, days after polling in Maharashtra ended, the Shiv Sena mouthpiece Saamna, attacked Gujaratis, questioning their loyalty to Maharashtra. Later that year, the BJP snapped its alliance with the Shiv Sena and emerged as the single-largest party in the state.
The 2017 BMC polls also saw the two fight alone, and though the Sena came to power in the civic body, the linguistic polarisation between Maharashtrians and non-Maharashtrians, especially over issues like exclusive residential enclaves for vegetarians and cultural assertion intensified. Though the Sena and BJP have allied with the former abandoning it's go-it-alone stance, sources admit that bitterness persists among the cadre and middle-rung of the two parties, who lead the charge on the ground.
Deora, who is the Mumbai Regional Congress Committee (MRCC) president, has accused the Sena of insulting Jains by cooking meat outside Jain temples during Paryushan. Amin Patel, Congress MLA from Mumbadevi, said business communities were upset at demonetization and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). "This time, there is no Modi wave to help Sawant get these votes," he added.
"Businessmen are finding the going tough, but trading communities may vote for the Sena as an endorsement for Modi," said a Gujarati leader from South Mumbai. "We have voters across caste and community lines, be it Gujaratis, Marwadis, Jains, Muslims, North Indians and Telugu-speakers as we have worked for them," said Pandurang Sakpal, the Sena's South Mumbai vibhag pramukh, adding their grassroots organisation would ensure victory.
Choudhari said of the 32 corporators in the Lok Sabha seat, the Shiv Sena and BJP had 15 and nine respectively. The saffron alliance holds four of the six assembly segments
