A combination of ways that stem from traditional wisdom, tracking the movement of birds and observing the changing patterns of nature have helped Indians to predict the onset of monsoon for centuries.
Rajesh Kapadia, who runs the blog " Vagaries of the Weather" and swears by scientific rigour in his weather-related predictions, believes that the movement of birds has always indicated shifts in the weather.
Kapadia admits that it is not scientific, but the movement of the Pied Crested Cuckoo heralds the monsoon. The cuckoo travels with the south west monsoon winds that start from East Africa and hit the southern coast of India in Kerala. The winds move all the way to Karnataka, Goa, and Maharashtra. The cuckoo usually reaches its destination five days before the rains set in and its arrival thus, gives strong signals.
Kapadia also mentions the homegrown, Mumbai-specific technique of predicting monsoon.
"Local crows during the pre-monsoon nesting season start making nests eight days prior to the onset of the season. The cuckoo also makes more noise ahead of monsoon to mate. The cuckoo occupies the crow nests during its mating season. The seas tend to get short choppy waves and the color changes to brown and grey four days prior to the season's arrival," explains Kapadia.
The Indian Pitta (Navrang bird) travels from South India to North India during monsoons and on its way, crosses Maharashtra.
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In Maharashtra and Gujarat, especially in the northern range of the Western Ghats, the Oriental Kingfisher stays from June to September after it has travelled all the way from South India and Sri Lanka.
Consultant Director of Sanctuary Nature Foundation Prof Dr Parvish Pandya explains that villagers and tribals understand the nature well. They observe flowers, birds, frogs and emerging ants to predict monsoon rains.
The red-wattled lapwing or locally known as the Titwi bird's nesting habits can predict the arrival of rains. If the nest is closer to the water, it means it will rain late and if it is far away, it indicates that it will rain early and water levels will rise soon.
Frog calls and frogs emerging from the mud is a tried and tested method of predicting monsoons. "Ants or winged termites flying out of the ground means it is going to rain within a few hours," explains Pandya.
Almanac expert D K Soman explains that the movement of the sun is documented in 27 divisions and every division indicates a time period or a 'Nakshatra'. Mrig, Adra, Punarvasu, Kushya, Ashlesha, Magha, Purva, Uttara, Hasta, Chitra, and Swati are a few divisions when the monsoon time is divided. The sun stays in one division for fifteen days. And the Mrig Nakshatra will herald rain on June 8, adds Soman.
The Pied Crested Cuckoo popularly known as 'Chatak' is a perfect weathercock to predict rains since time immemorial.
Sanskrit Poet Kalidas in his epic long poem 'Meghadootam' mentions the bird, as well as its romance with rains.
'The cuckoo birds will fly animatedly hither and thither, skilfully catching every drop of rain. After all, they feed only on fresh drops of rain falling from the sky, don't they ?', writes Kalidasa.
Pandya explains that Chatak drinks the first drop of rains which means that it travels ahead of the monsoon winds and it is present when it actually rains. He adds that predatory crows in the city attack the chataks when they arrive after a long journey from East Africa. They seek refuge in people's houses and that is when the Bombay Natural History Society(BNHS) gets frantic calls from bird lovers to rescue them.
