Virulent second wave of H1N1 ruled out

Cities like Pune and Bangalore will see many minor waves, instead of a more virulent second wave, of swine flu, according to Dr Vishwa Mohan Katoch, secretary, department of health research.

Katoch, who is also director-general of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), was in Pune on Friday to attend the annual meeting of the Society of Biological Chemists (India) organised by the National Centre for Cell Sciences (NCCS).

He said Pune and Bangalore, where the pandemic H1N1 flu had spread rapidly, would see several minor waves of the infection.

Katoch told DNA that 30-40% of Pune’s population has been infected with the virus.
“However to attain the status of herd immunity, 60-80% of the people must get infected. Hence, in the coming days, we will see several minor waves of the infection,” said Katoch.

The Union government is working in association with the National Institute of Virology (NIV) to carry out a serological study through blood samples collected in Pune city.
On whether the minor waves could lead to a second wave, as is being feared by health authorities across the world, Katoch said, “I do not see the possibility of a second wave till now, as the virus has not changed.”

According to Katoch, although a “huge population” in Pune has been infected, the number of actual cases will be less than 5% and among them, severe cases will be fewer.
“Nearly 95% of those infected are asymptomatic — they will either not show symptoms or will only develop mild fever,” explained Katoch.

He added that the situation will be similar for cities like Bangalore. According to him, the authorities have been able to control the situation with timely prescription of Tamiflu and by making it available even at the district level. 

However, doctors must now go for early detection of clusters, wherein one or two persons be tested, and if found to be positive, everyone around such patients should be given Tamiflu immediately, he suggested.

He said 27 government and 11 private laboratories are carrying out H1N1 flu tests in the country.

“Only India could reduce the spread of the virus, primarily due to early screening at airports. The first case was detected in March, and by July we were able to contain it. But later, the virus spread through sub-clinical methods and community spreading,” he added.
In a bid to reduce pressure on institutes like the National Institute of Virology (NIV) and National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) in times of a pandemic outbreak or mass viral infection, Katoch said the health ministry has decided to set up a network of viral diagnostic centres across the country.

He said the Union health ministry and ICMR would meet officials from all three Indian pharma companies developing the H1N1 vaccine next month to review animal trials for proceeding with the phase one clinical trial.

“The vaccine is ready and most companies have almost concluded the animal testing. The human trials will begin by December but before that we will hold a review meeting to know the results of the animal tests,” said Katoch.

The Pune-based Serum Institute of India along with Bharat Biotech International Limited (Hyderabad) and Panacea Biotech Ltd (New Delhi) are developing the H1N1 vaccine.